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The Intergenerational Distribution of Demographic Fluctuations in Unfunded and Funded Pension Systems

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  • Knell, Markus

Abstract

In this paper I use a multi-period OLG model to study how a demographic shock is distributed among different generations. In particular, I investigate whether a funded pension system allows for a smoother adjustment than an unfunded system. The results suggest that the answer to this question depends on the specific organization of the funded system. If the contributions are only invested into a non-accumulated asset in fixed supply (e.g. into "land") and if the investment decisions are guided by fixed rules then the intergenerational distribution of the demographic shock is almost identical in the two systems. Assuming optimal investment decisions, on the other hand, will increase or decrease the fluctuations of the funded pillar (depending on the degree of risk aversion). It is only for the case where all savings are invested into accumulable, productive capital that the funded system will dampen the distributional consequences of a demographic shock. --

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Paper provided by Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association in its series Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order with number 79830.

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Date of creation: 2013
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc13:79830

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  1. Favero, Carlo A. & Gozluklu, Arie & Tamoni, Andrea, 2010. "Demographic Trends, the Dividend-Price Ratio and the Predictability of Long-Run Stock Market Returns," CEPR Discussion Papers 7734, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Auerbach, Alan J. & Lee, Ronald, 2011. "Welfare and generational equity in sustainable unfunded pension systems," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 16-27.
  3. David E. Bloom & David Canning, 2004. "Global demographic change : dimensions and economic significance," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Aug, pages 9-56.
  4. Assar Lindbeck & Mats Persson, 2003. "The Gains from Pension Reform," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(1), pages 74-112, March.
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  6. De Menil, Georges & Murtin, Fabrice & Sheshinski, Eytan, 2006. "Planning for the optimal mix of paygo tax and funded savings," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(01), pages 1-25, March.
  7. Henning Bohn, 1999. "Social Security and Demographic Uncertainty: The Risk Sharing Properties of Alternative Policies," NBER Working Papers 7030, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Kulish Mariano & Kent Christopher & Smith Kathryn, 2010. "Aging, Retirement, and Savings: A General Equilibrium Analysis," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-32, July.
  9. Hans Fehr & Sabine Jokisch & Laurence Kotlikoff, 2004. "Fertility, Mortality, and the Developed World’s Demographic Transition," CESifo Working Paper Series 1326, CESifo Group Munich.
  10. Ludwig, Alexander & Reiter, Michael, 2008. "Sharing Demographic Risk - Who is Afraid of the Baby Bust?," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 08-47, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim & Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
  11. Knell, Markus, 2010. "How automatic adjustment factors affect the internal rate of return of PAYG pension systems," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(01), pages 1-23, January.
  12. Robin Brooks, 2002. "Asset-Market Effects of the Baby Boom and Social-Security Reform," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 402-406, May.
  13. Markus Knell, 2010. "The Optimal Mix Between Funded and Unfunded Pension Systems When People Care About Relative Consumption," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 77(308), pages 710-733, October.
  14. Dutta, Jayasri & Kapur, Sandeep & Orszag, J. Michael, 2000. "A portfolio approach to the optimal funding of pensions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 201-206, November.
  15. Krüger, Dirk & Ludwig, Alexander, 2006. "On the Consequences of Demographic Change for Rates of Return to Capital, and the Distribution of Wealth and Welfare," CEPR Discussion Papers 5834, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  16. Robert Fenge & Martin Werding, 2003. "Ageing and Fiscal Imbalances Across Generations: Concepts of Measurement," CESifo Working Paper Series 842, CESifo Group Munich.
  17. Bohn, Henning, 2009. "Intergenerational risk sharing and fiscal policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 805-816, September.
  18. James Poterba, 2004. "The Impact of Population Aging on Financial Markets," NBER Working Papers 10851, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Barr, Nicholas & Diamond, Peter, 2009. "Pension Reform: A Short Guide," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195387728, September.
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