How do Beveridge and Phillips curves in the euro area behave under the stress of the world economic crisis?
AbstractIn this paper, the authors present a new concept of the 'modified output gap' based on the New Keynesian Phillips curve and on the Beveridge curve. In the first part of the paper, both mentioned curves are derived analytically. In doing so, we identify key parameters for the shift of the Beveridge curve (up- or downwards) and prove that - fulfilling a minimum of assumptions - the New Keynesian Phillips curve is (also) a falling convex relationship between the inflation rate and the unemployment rate in the tradition of Phillips (1958). Inserting the Phillips curve into the Beveridge curve reveals the explicit positive relationship between the vacancy ratio and the inflation rate. In the second part of the paper, we put all three relationships under an empirical 'stress test' using panel data from eleven of the EA 12 countries for three different samples during the world economic crisis: In all cases, the parameter estimates confirm the presumed existence of the three functions. --
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Universität der Bundeswehr München, Economic Research Group in its series Working Papers in Economics with number 2013,1.
Date of creation: 2013
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labor market; Phillips and Beveridge curves; policy ineffectiveness; world economic crisis and output gap;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs
- J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
- J38 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Public Policy
- E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution
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