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Allianzen zur Wiederherstellung internationaler Zahlungsfähigkeit: Ein Modell für Argentinien?

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  • Sell, Friedrich L.
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    Abstract

    Argentinien hat im Januar 2002 seine Zahlungsunfähigkeit erklärt und hofft seitdem auf neue Kredite des IWF. Anders als früher stellt der IWF nicht nur an die Zentralregierung Vorbedingungen: er fordert nämlich insbesondere, daß die Gebietskörperschaften eine kooperative Politik der Haushaltskonsolidierung betreiben sowie den föderalen Finanzausgleich und die Verteilung der Steuereinnahmen untereinander neu regeln. Diese Probleme lassen sich theoretisch in einem Allianzmodell darstellen, bei dem die Provinzen und der Zentralstaat das öffentliche Gut "Wiederherstellung der internationalen Zahlungsfähigkeit" gemeinsam "herstellen" müssen. Es wird in diesem Beitrag gezeigt, daß die bedingte Kreditzusage des IWF wie ein sich selbst durchsetzender Vertrag ("self-enforcing contract") wirken kann und im betroffenen Land eine positive Externalität auslöst. -- Argentina has defaulted on its external debt on January, 2002. The country hopes for "fresh money" from the IMF. However, the Fund has opted for a different policy than in earlier years: it now has set a number of pre-conditions to be fulfilled not only by the central government, but also by the state provinces. Among them are that the central government and the provinces find a co-operative agreement about budget/debt consolidation, intra-state transfer payments and the distribution of tax income. These issues can be modelled based on the theory of alliances, where the provinces and the central government have to "produce" jointly the public good "regaining international solvency". We show in our paper that the new IMF conditionality can work as a self-enforcing contract and provide positive externalities to Argentina.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Universität der Bundeswehr München, Economic Research Group in its series Working Papers in Economics with number 2003,1.

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    Date of creation: 2003
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    Handle: RePEc:zbw:ubwwpe:20031

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    Keywords: Finanzmarktkrise; Verschuldungskrise; Allianztheorie; Argentinien; emerging economies;

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    Cited by:
    1. Sell, Friedrich L., 2004. "Währungspolitik im Dienste von Entwicklung : Immer noch ein Forschungsprogramm!," Working Papers in Economics 2004,2, Universität der Bundeswehr München, Economic Research Group.

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