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Wahlprognosen: Politische Wahlbörsen versus traditionelle Meinungsforschung

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  • Berlemann, Michael

Abstract

Traditionell werden Prognosen über den Ausgang von politischen Wahlen aus Befragungsdaten gewonnen. Seit etwas mehr als einem Jahrzehnt beschäftigen sich auch Ökonomen vermehrt mit der Frage, wie eine gute Wahlprognose gewonnen werden kann. Als Instrument hierzu wurde die politische Wahlbörse entdeckt, an der Aktien für politische Parteien gehandelt werden. Im Rahmen der vorliegenden Arbeit werden beide Verfahren der Wahlprognose kurz vorgestellt und sowohl theoretisch als auch empirisch miteinander verglichen. Es zeigt sich, daß die Ergebnisse der bisher veranstalteten Wahlbörsen recht vielversprechend sind, jedoch durchaus noch Raum für Verbesserungen besteht. --

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Paper provided by Dresden University of Technology, Faculty of Business and Economics, Department of Economics in its series Dresden Discussion Paper Series in Economics with number 01/99.

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Date of creation: 1999
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:tuddps:0199

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  1. Friedman, Daniel & Harrison, Glenn W & Salmon, Jon W, 1984. "The Informational Efficiency of Experimental Asset Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(3), pages 349-408, June.
  2. Beckmann, Klaus & Werding, Martin, 1996. "'Passauer Wahlborse': Information Processing in a Political Market Experiment," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(2), pages 171-204.
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