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Bias in nearest-neighbor hazard estimation

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  • Weißbach, Rafael
  • Dette, Holger
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    Abstract

    In nonparametric curve estimation, the smoothing parameter is critical for performance. In order to estimate the hazard rate, we compare nearest neighbor selectors that minimize the quadratic, the Kullback-Leibler, and the uniform loss. These measures result in a rule of thumb, a cross-validation, and a plug-in selector. A Monte Carlo simulation within the three-parameter exponentiated Weibull distribution indicates that a counter-factual normal distribution, as an input to the selector, does provide a good rule of thumb. If bias is the main concern, minimizing the uniform loss yields the best results, but at the cost of very high variability. Cross-validation has a similar bias to the rule of thumb, but also with high variability. --

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Technische Universität Dortmund, Sonderforschungsbereich 475: Komplexitätsreduktion in multivariaten Datenstrukturen in its series Technical Reports with number 2008,15.

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    Date of creation: 2008
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    Handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb475:200815

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    Related research

    Keywords: hazard rate; kernel smoothing; bandwidth selection; nearest neighbor bandwidth; rule of thumb; plug-in; cross-validation; credit risk;

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    1. Ralescu, S. S., 1995. "The Law of the Iterated Logarithm for the Multivariate Nearest Neighbor Density Estimators," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 159-179, April.
    2. Kiefer, Nicholas M. & Larson, C. Erik, 2007. "A simulation estimator for testing the time homogeneity of credit rating transitions," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 818-835, December.
    3. Lando, David & Skodeberg, Torben M., 2002. "Analyzing rating transitions and rating drift with continuous observations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2-3), pages 423-444, March.
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