On the (nonlinear) relationship between exchange rate uncertainty and trade: An investigation of US trade figures in the Group of Seven
AbstractIn this paper bilateral models formalizing monthly growth of US imports and exports are employed to investigate the potential of nonlinear relationships linking exchange rate uncertainty and trade growth. Parametric linear and nonlinear as well as semiparametric time series models are evaluated in terms of fitting and ex ante forecasting. The overall impact of exchange rate variations on trade growth is found to be weak. In periods of large exchange rate variations, trade growth forecasts gain from conditioning on volatility. Empirical results support the view that the relationship of interest might be nonlinear and, moreover, lacks homogeneity across countries and imports vs. exports --
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes in its series SFB 373 Discussion Papers with number 2003,2.
Date of creation: 2003
Date of revision:
Exchange rate volatility; international trade; ARCH; Group of Seven; forecasting;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
- F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
- C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
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- Theo Panagiotidis & Mark J Holmes, 2005. "Sustainability and Asymmetric Adjustment: Some New Evidence Concerning Behaviour of the US Current Account," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 29, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
- Zwinkels, Remco C.J. & Beugelsdijk, Sjoerd, 2010. "Gravity equations: Workhorse or Trojan horse in explaining trade and FDI patterns across time and space?," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 102-115, February.
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