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Reducing size distortions of parametric stationarity tests

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  • Lanne, Markku
  • Saikkonen, Pentti

Abstract

The use of asymptotic critical values in stationarity tests against the alternative of a unit rot process is known to lead to overrejections in finite samples when the considered process is stationary but highly persistent. We claim that in recent parametric tests this is caused by estimation errors which result when the autoregressive parameters used to describe the short-run dynamics of the process are replaced by estimators. We suggest a modification that corrects for these errors and show by simulation that the modified test works reasonably well whenn the persistence is moderate and there is no time trend in the model. An empirical illustration withinflation rate data is provided.

Suggested Citation

  • Lanne, Markku & Saikkonen, Pentti, 2000. "Reducing size distortions of parametric stationarity tests," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2000,12, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb373:200012
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Caner, M. & Kilian, L., 2001. "Size distortions of tests of the null hypothesis of stationarity: evidence and implications for the PPP debate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 639-657, October.
    2. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    3. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-836, July.
    4. Choi, In, 1994. "Residual-Based Tests for the Null of Stationarity with Applications to U.S. Macroeconomic Time Series," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(3-4), pages 720-746, August.
    5. Culver, Sarah E & Papell, David H, 1997. "Is There a Unit Root in the Inflation Rate? Evidence from Sequential Break and Panel Data Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(4), pages 435-444, July-Aug..
    6. Tanaka, Katsuto, 1990. "Testing for a Moving Average Unit Root," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(4), pages 433-444, December.
    7. Leybourne, S J & McCabe, B P M, 1994. "A Consistent Test for a Unit Root," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(2), pages 157-166, April.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Vasco Gabriel, 2003. "Tests for the Null Hypothesis of Cointegration: A Monte Carlo Comparison," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(4), pages 411-435.
    2. Wasel Shadat, 2011. "On the Nonparametric Tests of Univariate GARCH Regression Models," Economics Discussion Paper Series 1115, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    3. Kurozumi, Eiji, 2009. "Construction of Stationarity Tests with Less Size Distortions," Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 50(1), pages 87-105, June.
    4. Nunzio Cappuccio & Diego Lubian, 2010. "The fragility of the KPSS stationarity test," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 19(2), pages 237-253, June.
    5. Eiji Kurozumi & Shinya Tanaka, 2010. "Reducing the size distortion of the KPSS test," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(6), pages 415-426, November.
    6. Jönsson, Kristian, 2006. "Finite-Sample Stability of the KPSS Test," Working Papers 2006:23, Lund University, Department of Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    stationarity test; inflation rate;

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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