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A nonparametric analysis of regional unemployment dynamics in Britain

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  • Bianchi, Marco
  • Zoega, Gylfi

Abstract

This paper estimates the probability distribution of relative county unemployment in Britain for the years 1981-1995. We find that the distribution is unimodal in all years, with a falling variance between 1989 and 1994. We use bootstrap methods to determine critical values for the two tails of the distribution, and analyse intra-distribution dynamics. An unemployment transition is defined as a move between a tail and the centre of the distribution (and vice versa). We calculate transition probabilities and find that the probability of leaving any given state is very low. We also find that high (low) unemployment regions have a higher probability of entering a state of lower (higher) unemployment than a state of higher (lower) unemployment.

Suggested Citation

  • Bianchi, Marco & Zoega, Gylfi, 1997. "A nonparametric analysis of regional unemployment dynamics in Britain," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1997,94, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb373:199794
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pencavel, John, 1994. "British Unemployment: Letter from America," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(424), pages 621-632, May.
    2. Jackman, Richard & Savouri, Savvas, 1992. "Regional Migration in Britain: An Analysis of Gross Flows Using NHS Central Register Data," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 102(415), pages 1433-1450, November.
    3. Marco Bianchi & Gyfli Zoega, 1996. "How Quickly do British Regions Recover?," Archive Discussion Papers 9622, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
    4. Bianchi, Marco, 1997. "Testing for Convergence: Evidence from Non-parametric Multimodality Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(4), pages 393-409, July-Aug..
    5. Pissarides, Christopher A & McMaster, Ian, 1990. "Regional Migration, Wages and Unemployment: Empirical Evidence and Implications for Policy," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 42(4), pages 812-831, October.
    6. Evans, Philip & McCormick, Barry, 1994. "The New Pattern of Regional Unemployment: Causes and Policy Significance," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(424), pages 633-647, May.
    7. Gordon Hughes & Barry McCormick, 1991. "Housing Markets, Unemployment and Labour Market Flexibility in the U.K," NBER Chapters, in: International Volatility and Economic Growth: The First Ten Years of The International Seminar on Macroeconomics, pages 83-114, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Hughes, Gordon & McCormick, Barry, 1994. "Did Migration in the 1980s Narrow the North-South Divide?," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 61(244), pages 509-527, November.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Profit, Stefan, 1997. "Twin peaks in regional unemployment and returns to scale in job-matching in the Czech Republic," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1997,63, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    2. Stefan Profit, 1998. "Twin peaks in regional unemployment and returns to scale in job-matching in the Czech Republic," ERSA conference papers ersa98p42, European Regional Science Association.
    3. Fabio Canova & Evi Pappa, 2006. "Does It Cost to Be Virtuous? The Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Constraints," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2004, pages 327-370, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. repec:rre:publsh:v:37:y:2007:i:3:p:282-302 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Joanna Tyrowicz & Piotr Wojcik, 2010. "Active Labour Market Policies and Unemployment Convergence in Transition," Review of Economic Analysis, Digital Initiatives at the University of Waterloo Library, vol. 2(1), pages 46-72, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    panel data; nonparametric analysis; Regional unemployment; asymmetric effects in the persistence of transition dynamics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General

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