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The Credibility of Monetary Policy Announcements – Empirical Evidence for OECD Countries since the 1960s

Author

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  • Belke, Ansgar
  • Freytag, Andreas
  • Keil, Jonas
  • Friedrich Schneider

Abstract

Monetary policy rules have been considered as fundamental protection against inflation. However, empirical evidence for a correlation between rules and inflation is relatively weak. In this paper, we first discuss likely causes for this weak link and present the argument that monetary commitment is not credible in itself. It can grant price stability best if it is backed by an adequate assignment of economic policy. An empirical assessment based on panel data covering five decades and 22 OECD countries confirms the crucial role of a credibly backed monetary commitment to price stability.

Suggested Citation

  • Belke, Ansgar & Freytag, Andreas & Keil, Jonas & Friedrich Schneider, 2012. "The Credibility of Monetary Policy Announcements – Empirical Evidence for OECD Countries since the 1960s," Ruhr Economic Papers 355, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:rwirep:355
    DOI: 10.4419/86788409
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Belke, Ansgar, 2017. "Central bank communication: Managing expectations through the monetary dialogue," Ruhr Economic Papers 692, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    2. Bennani, Hamza, 2018. "Media coverage and ECB policy-making: Evidence from an augmented Taylor rule," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 26-38.
    3. Ansgar Belke, 2013. "Impact of a Low Interest Rate Environment – Global Liquidity Spillovers and the Search-for-yield," ROME Working Papers 201305, ROME Network.
    4. Cavallo, Antonella & Ribba, Antonio, 2015. "Common macroeconomic shocks and business cycle fluctuations in Euro area countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 377-392.
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    6. Kim, Young Min & Kang, Kyu Ho & Ka, Kook, 2020. "Do bond markets find inflation targets credible? Evidence from five inflation-targeting countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 66-84.
    7. Hamza Bennani, 2016. "Media Coverage and ECB Policy-Making: Evidence from a New Index," Working Papers hal-04141572, HAL.
    8. Hamza Bennani, 2016. "Media Coverage and ECB Policy-Making: Evidence from a New Index," EconomiX Working Papers 2016-38, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    9. Ansgar Belke & Florian Verheyen, 2014. "The Low-Interest-Rate Environment, Global Liquidity Spillovers and Challenges for Monetary Policy Ahead," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 56(2), pages 313-334, June.
    10. Ansgar Belke, 2013. "Impact of a Low Interest Rate Environment - Global Liquidity Spillovers and the Search-for-yield," Ruhr Economic Papers 0429, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    11. Julio Pindado & Ignacio Requejo & Juan C. Rivera, 2020. "Does money supply shape corporate capital structure? International evidence from a panel data analysis," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(6), pages 554-584, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credibility; central bank independence; price stability; monetary commitment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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