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Die deutsche Healthcare-Branche im Jahr 2015: Zukunftsszenarien mit strategischen Implikationen

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  • Colosio, Dario
  • Vollmar, Bernhard H.
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    Abstract

    Angesichts steigender Unsicherheit und Komplexität der technologischen, gesundheitspolitischen, kulturellen und ökonomischen Rahmenbedingungen in der deutschen Healthcare-Branche ist die Identifikation und Berücksichtigung von Einflussfaktoren und alternativen Zukunftsbildern in der strategischen Unternehmensplanung von steigender Bedeutung. Die vorliegende Arbeit konzentriert sich auf die Anwendung der Szenario-Technik als Planungsinstrument und diskutiert im weiteren Verlauf drei zentrale Fragestellungen: (A) Wie könnte sich die heutige Healthcare-Branche im Jahr 2015 entwickeln? (B) Welche grundsätzlichen strategischen Optionen können die Healthcare-Unternehmen infolgedessen ergreifen? (C) Ist eine gegenwärtige Tendenz zu einem der erstellten Szenarien ersichtlich? Die vorliegende Arbeit identifiziert die Zahlungsbereitschaft der Bevölkerung und den Informationsstand der Bevölkerung als kritische Unsicherheiten und entwickelt darauf aufbauend für das Jahr 2015 vier inhaltlich konsistente Szenarien. Darüber hinaus, werden in den jeweiligen Szenarien für die Healthcare-Unternehmen generische strategische Handlungsempfehlungen formuliert. Auch eine Kernstrategie, welche szenarioübergreifend angestrebt werden sollte, wird aufgezeigt. Abschließend ergibt die Analyse aktueller Daten zur Healthcare-Industrie, dass sich die Branche in einem durchaus kritischen Markt bewegt, in dem gut informierte Patienten die Produkte und Leistungen der Leistungserbringer und Healthcare-Unternehmen kritisch hinterfragen. -- Facing growing uncertainty and complexity of technological, political, cultural and economical conditions in the German healthcare industry, identifying key influence factors and considering multiple futures in strategic planning is of increasing importance for companies. Using a scenario-based approach, our paper discusses three questions: (A) How will the German healthcare industry develop between now and the year 2015? (B) What are possible generic strategic options for healthcare companies? (C) Is there a trend towards one of the derived scenarios observable? Our paper identified the public's willingness to pay as well as the public's level of information as core uncertainties and developed four consistent scenarios for the year 2015. Furthermore, healthcare companies are provided with generic strategic recommendations for each of the possible scenarios as well as with a core strategy, which is to be pursuit across all scenarios. Finally, recent data indicated that the German healthcare industry shifts towards an industry, where well informed patients critically assess the products and services provided by care provider and healthcare companies.

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    Paper provided by PFH Private University of Applied Sciences, Göttingen in its series PFH Forschungspapiere/Research Papers with number 2012/03.

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    Date of creation: 2012
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    Handle: RePEc:zbw:pfhrps:201203

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    Web page: http://www.pfh.de/en/

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    1. Akerlof, George A, 1970. "The Market for 'Lemons': Quality Uncertainty and the Market Mechanism," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 84(3), pages 488-500, August.
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