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The employment effects of different regimes of welfare state taxation: An empirical analysis of core OECD countries

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  • Kemmerling, Achim
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    Abstract

    Among policy-makers and academics there is a controversial discussion whether the tax mix influences labor market performance in advanced industrialized countries. Many economists argue that the total tax burden rather than the tax-mix matters for aggregate employment, whereas neither the burden nor the mix play major roles in determining unemployment in the long run. This paper aims at combining this literature with an analysis informed by comparative welfare state analysis. It starts with a discussion of standard economic accounts – the incentives literature – and looks for cases where tax-mixes affect labor markets. Then the analysis shifts to a comparative point of view. Contemporaneous welfare states not only differ in terms of social expenditures, but also in the ways they fund these expenditures by various forms of taxation. The paper shows some of the linkages between the tax regime on the one hand, and the regime for social expenditures, and namely social transfers, on the other hand. The tax regime is, however, an imperfect mirror image of social expenditures and has the capacity to shape labor market outcomes. In particular, countries with high payroll and indirect taxation pose more problems for (low-wage) private sector employment than countries relying predominantly on income taxation. Moreover, since all countries have opened up their goods and capital markets, taxation these days should matter more for labor market outcomes than in times when markets were still national in nature. The paper attempts to judge the empirical plausibility of these claims. The empirical estimations generate three tentative results: First, there is some evidence that payroll and indirect taxation is more harmful for labor markets than income taxation. Second, this is particularly true for non-tradables sectors with a low degree of productivity. Third, there is some evidence that the impact of taxation has increased in the last decades. Taken together, the three results add to an explanation why some welfare states in continental Europe have both low employment and high unemployment rates. -- Unter politischen Entscheidungsträgern und Wissenschaftlern wird immer wieder darüber diskutiert, ob die Mischung unterschiedlicher Steuerarten (Steuer-Mix) Arbeitsmarktergebnisse beeinflusst. Viele Ökonomen behaupten, dass lediglich die Gesamtsteuerhöhe für die Arbeitsaufnahme relevant ist. Für die Höhe der Arbeitslosigkeit sei weder der Steuer-Mix noch die Steuerhöhe entscheidend. Das vorliegende Diskussionspapier hat zum Ziel, diese Diskussion in den Rahmen der vergleichenden Wohlfahrtsstaatenforschung einzubetten. Zunächst werden ökonomische Anreizmodelle diskutiert, in denen Steuern einen Einfluss auf Arbeitsmarktergebnisse ausüben. Zudem zeigt der Vergleich von Wohlfahrtsstaaten, dass sich Länder nicht nur bezüglich der Sozialausgaben unterscheiden, sondern auch bezüglich des Steuer-Mixes. Des weiteren werden einige Verbindungslinien zwischen dem Steuerregime und dem Regime von Sozialausgaben, insbesondere von sozialpolitisch motivierten Transfers, gezogen. Allerdings sind Steuer- und Transferregime keine perfekten Spiegelbilder voneinander. Daher lohnt es sich für die Wohlfahrtsstaatenforschung zu untersuchen, welchen Einfluss das Steuerregime auf den Arbeitsmarkt ausübt. Besonders bedeutsam ist hierbei die These, dass Länder mit hohen Sozialversicherungsbeiträgen und indirekten Steuern den privaten (Niedriglohn-)Sektor stärker belasten als Länder mit hohen Einkommenssteuern. Zudem sollte dieser Effekt heute stärker sein als noch zu Zeiten, in denen die Länder Barrieren zwischen Güter- und Kapitalmärkten aufrecht erhielten. Diese Thesen werden durch empirische Schätzungen evaluiert, welche drei wesentliche Ergebnisse liefern: Erstens scheinen Sozialversicherungsbeiträge und indirekte Steuern schädlicher für den Arbeitsmarkt zu sein als Einkommenssteuern. Zweitens gilt dies vor allem für den Sektor nicht handelbarer Güter mit geringer Produktivität. Drittens zeichnet sich ab, dass der Zusammenhang zwischen Steuern und Arbeitsmarktergebnissen in den letzten Jahrzehnten zugenommen hat. Alle drei Punkte zusammen tragen zu einer Beantwortung der Frage bei, warum einige kontinentaleuropäische Länder derzeit von hohen Arbeitslosen- und geringen Beschäftigungsraten gekennzeichnet sind.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies in its series MPIfG Discussion Paper with number 02/8.

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    Date of creation: 2002
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    Handle: RePEc:zbw:mpifgd:028

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    1. Thomas Bauer & Regina Riphahn, 2002. "Employment effects of payroll taxes - an empirical test for Germany," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(7), pages 865-876.
    2. Francesco Daveri, 2002. "Labor Taxes and Unemployment: a Survey of the Aggregate Evidence," CeRP Working Papers 18, Center for Research on Pensions and Welfare Policies, Turin (Italy).
    3. Richard Blundell & Thomas MaCurdy, 1998. "Labour supply: a review of alternative approaches," IFS Working Papers W98/18, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    4. Richard B. Freeman & Ronald Schettkat, 2000. "Low Wage Services: Interpreting the US - German Difference," NBER Working Papers 7611, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Richard W. Blundell, 1995. "The Impact of Taxation on Labour Force Participation and Labour Supply," OECD Jobs Study Working Papers 8, OECD Publishing.
    6. Laisney, François & Pohlmeier, Winfried & Staat, Matthias, 1991. "Estimation of labour supply functions using panel data: a survey," ZEW Discussion Papers 91-05, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
    7. Bean, Charles R, 1994. "European Unemployment: A Survey," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 32(2), pages 573-619, June.
    8. Wood, Adrian, 1995. "North-South Trade, Employment and Inequality: Changing Fortunes in a Skill-Driven World," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198290155.
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