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Ein Nelson-Winter-Modell der deutschen Volkswirtschaft


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  • Quaas, Georg


Die von Nelson und Winter (1982) vorgeschlagene evolutorische Theorie hat hunderte Studien angeregt, die sich auf das Modell beziehen, das in ihrem Buch vorgestellt wird. Dieses Modell demonstrierte die empirische Gültigkeit eines neuen theoretischen und methodologischen Ansatzes auf dem Hintergrund der U.S.-amerikanischen Ökonomie und entsprechender Daten. Allerdings wurde nur in wenigen Studien versucht, das Modell durch Anwendung auf eine andere Volkswirtschaft zu replizieren. Das vorliegende Pepier stellt eine spezielle Implementation der umfangreichen, aber sehr speziellen Klasse von Nelson-Winter-Modellen dar, die die Evolution der deutschen Volkswirtschaft von 1970 bis 2004 nachvollzieht. Im Großen und Ganzen zeigt das Modell dasselbe Verhalten wie von Nelson und Winter berichtet. Vergleicht man es mit den üblichen ökonometrischen Modellen, so ist seine Leistungsfähigkeit fernab von zufriedenstellend. Aber das ist insofern nicht überraschend, als im Modell so wichtige Strukturen wie ein Markt für Güter und Dienstleistungen noch nicht implementiert worden sind. -- The evolutionary theory proposed by Nelson and Winter (1982) has inspired hundreds of studies related to the model presented in their book. This model has demonstrated the empirical validity of a new theoretical and methodological approach to the background of the U.S. economy and the corresponding data. However, only a few of those related studies aimed at replicating the model and applying it to another economy. This study presents a special implementation of the large, but very special class of Nelson-Winter models that mimics the evolution of the German economy from 1970 to 2004. By and large, the model shows the same behavior reported by Nelson and Winter. Compared to standard econometric models, its performance is far from satisfactory. This is not surprising because important structures such as a market for goods and services are still not implemented in the model.

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Paper provided by University of Leipzig, Faculty of Economics and Management Science in its series Working Papers with number 112.

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Date of creation: 2012
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:leiwps:112

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Keywords: Nelson-Winter-Modell; Evolutorische Ökonomik; Modell der deutschen Volkswirtschaft; Nelson-Winter model; evolutionary theory; modeling the German economy;

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  1. Ronald Ian McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2008. "China’s Exchange Rate Impasse and the Weak U.S. Dollar," CESifo Working Paper Series 2386, CESifo Group Munich.
  2. Volker Grossmann & Thomas Steger & Timo Trimborn, 2011. "The Macroeconomics of TANSTAAFL," CESifo Working Paper Series 3651, CESifo Group Munich.
  3. Bretschger, Lucas & Steger, Thomas, 2013. "Globalization, The Volatility Of Intermediate Goods Prices, And Economic Growth," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(02), pages 402-430, March.
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