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Regional industrial structure, productivity, wealth and income distribution in German regions

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  • Margarian, Anne
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    Abstract

    For the impartial observer of German regions, differences in regional industrial structures and prosperity are quite obvious. On the one hand, there are regions characterised by different industries, firm structures and labour qualification profiles. On the other hand, some of these regions are prosperous, dynamic and growing in terms of inhabitants, labor force and income while others suffer from high unemployment, low tax base and an unsatisfactory income situation. The link between the two observations is mainly acknowledged by theories of a Schumpeterian origin as it has frequently been observed that different industries differ in their propensity for innovation. Once the rigid assumptions of standard economic theory are consequentially dropped, it becomes evident that the regional industry mix might have significant implications for the local income distribution as well. Depending on the mobility of different kinds of labour it will thereby also affect regional development in terms of population dynamics. The present study asks, whether these postulated differentiated relationships between industrial structure and socio‐economic fundamentals can be identified statistically and whether they depend on agglomeration effects. Therefore, a cross‐sectional estimation with observations on district level (NUTS 3) is carried out in a mediated moderation approach. This approach allows for the differentiation between direct and indirect effects and for the identification of conditional effects, depending, for example, on regions' remoteness. The analysis starts with the creation of eight factors that efficiently describe districts' industrial structures. The factors are consistent with the industrial innovation type taxonomy created by Pavitt. In the final model the regional industrial structure, as described by these factors, explains socio‐economic fundamentals that indicate the regions' productivity, its income distribution and its population dynamics. -- Der unvoreingenommene Beobachter von Deutschlands Regionen bemerkt schnell die ausgeprägten Unterschiede in der regionalen Unternehmensstruktur und Einkommenssituation. Einerseits sind die Regionen durch verschiedene Branchenzusammensetzungen, Betriebsgrößenverteilungen und Qualifikationsstrukturen der Beschäftigten gekennzeichnet. Andererseits sind einige der Regionen wohlhabend, dynamisch und weisen eine positive Bevölkerungsentwicklung auf, während andere unter hoher Arbeitslosigkeit, geringen Steuereinnahmen und einer unbefriedigenden Einkommenssituation leiden. Der Zusammenhang zwischen den beiden Beobachtungen wird vor allem von Theorien Schumpeterianischen Ursprungs hergestellt, die auch auf der Beobachtung gründen, dass unterschiedliche Branchen sich in ihrer Innovationsneigung unterscheiden. Werden die strikten Annahmen der Standardökonomie einmal fallen gelassen, wird die Möglichkeit deutlich, dass die regionale Branchenzusammensetzung auch Einfluss haben kann auf die Einkommensverteilung in der Region. Abhängig von der unterschiedlichen Mobilität Beschäftigter verschiedener Bereiche steht die regionale Industriestruktur dann auch direkt im Zusammenhang zur lokalen Bevölkerungsdynamik. Diese Studie untersucht, ob diese erwarteten differenzierten Beziehungen zwischen der regionalen Industriestruktur und verschiedenen sozio‐ökonomischen Fundamentaldaten statistisch identifiziert werden können und ob sie von Agglomerationseffekten beeinflusst werden. Zu diesem Zweck wird eine Querschnittsanalyse basierend auf Beobachtungen auf Landkreisebene in einer "moderated mediation" Schätzung durchgeführt. Diese Schätzung ermöglicht die Unterscheidung zwischen direkten und indirekten Effekten und die Identifizierung bedingter Effekte, die zum Beispiel von der Zentralität von Regionen abhängen. Die Untersuchung beginnt mit der Bildung von acht Faktoren, die die regionale Industriestruktur effizient abbilden können. Diese Faktoren korrespondieren mit der branchenbezogenen Innovationstypen Taxonomie von Pavitt. Im Schätzmodell erklärt die regionale Industriestruktur, abgebildet durch die acht Faktoren, sozio‐ökonomische Daten zur regionalen Produktivität, Einkommensverteilung und Bevölkerungsentwicklung.

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    Paper provided by Johann Heinrich von Thünen Institute, Federal Research Institute for Rural Areas, Forestry and Fisheries in its series Thünen Working Papers with number 1.

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    Date of creation: 2013
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    Handle: RePEc:zbw:jhtiwp:1

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    Keywords: Industrial structure; Agglomeration effects; Peripheral rural regions; income distribution; Moderated mediation; Estimation; Branchenstruktur; Agglomerationseffekte; Landlich]periphere Regionen; Einkommensverteilung; Schatzung indirekter konditioneller Effekte;

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