IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/iwhdps/iwh-1-11.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Fiscal Spending Multiplier Calculations based on Input-Output Tables – with an Application to EU Members

Author

Listed:
  • Pusch, Toralf
  • Rannenberg, Ansgar

Abstract

Fiscal spending multiplier calculations have been revived in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. Much of the current literature is based on VAR estimation methods and DSGE models. The aim of this paper is not a further deepening of this literature but rather to implement a calculation method of multipliers which is suitable for open economies like EU member states. To this end, Input-Output tables are used as by this means the import intake of domestic demand components can be isolated in order to get an appropriate base for the calculation of the relevant import quotas. The difference of this method is substantial - on average the calculated multipliers are 15% higher than the conventional GDP fiscal spending multiplier for EU members. Multipliers for specific spending categories are comparably high, ranging between 1.4 and 1.8 for many members of the EU. GDP drops due to budget consolidation might therefore be substantial if monetary policy is not able to react in an expansionary manner.

Suggested Citation

  • Pusch, Toralf & Rannenberg, Ansgar, 2011. "Fiscal Spending Multiplier Calculations based on Input-Output Tables – with an Application to EU Members," IWH Discussion Papers 1/2011, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:iwhdps:iwh-1-11
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/45919/1/661239799.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alan J. Auerbach & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2012. "Measuring the Output Responses to Fiscal Policy," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 1-27, May.
    2. repec:zbw:iwhdps:15-10 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Miguel Almunia & Agustín Bénétrix & Barry Eichengreen & Kevin H. O’Rourke & Gisela Rua, 2010. "From Great Depression to Great Credit Crisis: similarities, differences and lessons [Germany: Guns, butter, and economic miracles]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 25(62), pages 219-265.
    4. Thomas I. Palley, 2009. "Imports and the income-expenditure model: implications for fiscal policy and recession fighting," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(2), pages 311-322, December.
    5. Christopher Erceg & Jesper Lindé, 2014. "Is There A Fiscal Free Lunch In A Liquidity Trap?," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 12(1), pages 73-107, February.
    6. Lawrence Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2011. "When Is the Government Spending Multiplier Large?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(1), pages 78-121.
    7. Mr. Douglas Laxton & Mr. Dirk V Muir & Mr. Michael Kumhof & Susanna Mursula & Charles Freedman, 2009. "Fiscal Stimulus to the Rescue? Short-Run Benefits and Potential Long-Run Costs of Fiscal Deficits," IMF Working Papers 2009/255, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Udo Ludwig & Hans-Ulrich Brautzsch, 2008. "Has the International Fragmentation of German Exports Passed Its Peak?," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 43(3), pages 176-180, May.
    9. Zeddies, Götz, 2010. "International Trade Patterns and Labor Markets – An Empirical Analysis for EU Member States," IWH Discussion Papers 15/2010, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    10. Kazimierz Laski & Jerzy Osiatynski & Jolanta Zieba, 2010. "The Government Expenditure Multiplier and its Estimates for Poland in 2006-2009," wiiw Working Papers 63, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Arogundade, Sodiq & Bila, Santos & Jan Derkacz, Arkadiusz, 2021. "Autonomous Expenditure Multipliers and Gross Value Added in South Africa," MPRA Paper 111115, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Gechert, Sebastian, 2012. "The multiplier principle, credit-money and time," MPRA Paper 34648, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Sonya Georgieva, 2021. "Fiscal Multipliers in Bulgaria and Central and Eastern Europe Countries," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 1, pages 131-167.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tommaso Ferraresi & Andrea Roventini & Giorgio Fagiolo, 2015. "Fiscal Policies and Credit Regimes: A TVAR Approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(7), pages 1047-1072, November.
    2. Olivier Blanchard & Christopher J. Erceg & Jesper Lindé, 2017. "Jump-Starting the Euro-Area Recovery: Would a Rise in Core Fiscal Spending Help the Periphery?," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 31(1), pages 103-182.
    3. Mamedli, Mariam, 2016. "Government expenditure multiplier under the zero lower bound: The role of public investment," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 14(PA), pages 103-111.
    4. Patrick Blagrave & Giang Ho & Ksenia Koloskova & Mr. Esteban Vesperoni, 2017. "Fiscal Spillovers: The Importance of Macroeconomic and Policy Conditions in Transmission," IMF Spillover Notes 2017/002, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Ricardo Félix & Gabriela Castro & José Maria & Paulo Júlio, 2013. "Fiscal Multipliers in a Small Euro Area Economy: How Big Can They Get in Crisis Times?," EcoMod2013 5307, EcoMod.
    6. Gagnon, Marie-Hélène & Gimet, Céline, 2013. "The impacts of standard monetary and budgetary policies on liquidity and financial markets: International evidence from the credit freeze crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4599-4614.
    7. Oh, Hyunseung & Reis, Ricardo, 2012. "Targeted transfers and the fiscal response to the great recession," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(S), pages 50-64.
    8. Stähler, Nikolai & Thomas, Carlos, 2012. "FiMod — A DSGE model for fiscal policy simulations," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 239-261.
    9. Amendola, Adalgiso & Di Serio, Mario & Fragetta, Matteo & Melina, Giovanni, 2020. "The euro-area government spending multiplier at the effective lower bound," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    10. Eric M. Leeper & Nora Traum & Todd B. Walker, 2017. "Clearing Up the Fiscal Multiplier Morass," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(8), pages 2409-2454, August.
    11. Pablo Hernández de Cos & Enrique Moral-Benito, 2016. "Fiscal multipliers in turbulent times: the case of Spain," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 50(4), pages 1589-1625, June.
    12. Michael Woodford, 2011. "Simple Analytics of the Government Expenditure Multiplier," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(1), pages 1-35, January.
    13. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin S. Eichenbaum & Mathias Trabandt, 2018. "On DSGE Models," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(3), pages 113-140, Summer.
    14. Sebastian Gechert & Ansgar Rannenberg, 2014. "Are Fiscal Multipliers Regime-Dependent? A Meta Regression Analysis," IMK Working Paper 139-2014, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    15. Patrick Fève & Jean-Guillaume Sahuc, 2015. "On the size of the government spending multiplier in the euro area," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 67(3), pages 531-552.
    16. Rendahl, P., 2012. "Fiscal Policy in an Unemployment Crisis," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1211, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    17. Shen, Wenyi & Yang, Shu-Chun S. & Zanna, Luis-Felipe, 2018. "Government spending effects in low-income countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 201-219.
    18. Sergio Sola, 2013. "Temporary and Persistent Fiscal Policy Shocks," IHEID Working Papers 06-2013, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    19. Tannous Kass-Hanna & Julien Reynaud & Chris Walker, 2023. "Estimating Fiscal Multipliers Under Alternative Exchange Rate Regimes: The Case of Bolivia," IMF Working Papers 2023/240, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Richard McManus & Gulcin Ozkan & Dawid Trzeciakiewicz, 2019. "Expansionary Contractions and Fiscal Free Lunches: Too Good To Be True?," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 121(1), pages 32-54, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal spending multiplier calculation; Input-Output calculus; incomeexpenditure model; European Union; stimulus; consolidation; Fiskalpolitischer Ausgabenmultiplikator; Multiplikator; Fiskalpolitik; Input-Output-Rechnung; Europäische Union; Konjunkturpolitik; Konsolidierung;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B22 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Macroeconomics
    • C67 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Input-Output Models
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:iwhdps:iwh-1-11. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iwhhhde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.