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The credibility of 'The Link' from the perspective of modern financial theory

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  • Genberg, Hans
  • Hui, Cho-Hoi

Abstract

Hong Kong’s Linked Exchange Rate System (LERS) has been in operation for twenty-five years during which time many other fixed exchange rate systems have succumbed to shocks and/or speculative attacks. This fact alone suggests that the LERS is a robust system which enjoys a large measure of credibility in financial markets. This paper intends to investigate whether this is indeed the case, and whether it has been the case throughout its 25-year history. In particular we will use the tools of modern finance to extract information from financial asset prices about market expectations that are related to the credibility of the LERS. The main focus is on how market participants ‘judged’ the various changes made to the LERS, such as the ‘seven technical measures’ introduced in September 1998 and the ‘three refinements’ made in May 2005. These changes have been characterizes as making the system less discretionary over time, and we hypothesize that they have also made it more credible as revealed in the prices of exchange rate related asset prices. We also investigate the relationship between interest rates and exchange rates in the current system in light of modern models of target-zone exchange rate systems. We will examine whether the intramarginal intervention in November 2007 changed the dynamic properties of the exchange rate as suggested by such models.

Suggested Citation

  • Genberg, Hans & Hui, Cho-Hoi, 2008. "The credibility of 'The Link' from the perspective of modern financial theory," IMFS Working Paper Series 18, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:imfswp:18
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    3. Yu-Fu Chen & Michael Funke & Nicole Glanemann, 2009. "A Soft Edge Target Zone Model: Theory And Application To Hong Kong," Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics 228, Economic Studies, University of Dundee.
    4. Roman Inderst, 2008. "'Irresponsible Lending' With A Better Informed Lender," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(532), pages 1499-1519, October.
    5. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Roman Inderst & Holger M. Mueller & Felix Münnich, 2006. "Financing a Portfolio of Projects," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(4), pages 1289-1325.
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    8. Roman Inderst & Holger M. Mueller, 2010. "CEO Replacement Under Private Information," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(8), pages 2935-2969, August.
    9. Inderst, Roman & Mueller, Holger M., 2009. "Early-stage financing and firm growth in new industries," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 276-291, August.
    10. Inderst, Roman & Mueller, Holger M., 2008. "Bank capital structure and credit decisions," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 295-314, July.
    11. Michael Funke & Yu-Fu Chen & Nicole Glanemann, 2009. "A soft target zone model: Theory and application to Hong Kong," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 20912, Hamburg University, Department of Economics.
    12. Inderst, Roman, 2009. "Loan origination under soft- and hard-information lending," IMFS Working Paper Series 27, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    13. Dong He & Zhiwei Zhang & Honglin Wang, 2009. "Hong Kong's Financial Market Interactions with the US and Mainland China in Crisis and Tranquil Times," Working Papers 0910, Hong Kong Monetary Authority.

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    JEL classification:

    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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