IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/ifwkie/394.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Inflationsgefahren werden größer - Welchen Kurs soll die Geldpolitik steuern? Thesen zum 38. Kieler Konjunkturgespräch

Author

Listed:
  • Langfeldt, Enno
  • Scheide, Joachim
  • Trapp, Peter

Abstract

Table of Contents: I. Kräftige Konjunkturbelebung verstärkt Inflationserwartungen in den Industrieländern 3 1. Deutliche Zunahme der Produktion 3 2. Ausblick: Geldpolitik dämpft Konjunktur 1989 6 3. Stabilitätsorientierung der Geldpolitik kontrovers 8 II. Was kann die Geldpolitik leisten? 9 1. Geldpolitik ist für Preisniveaustabilität verantwortlich 9 2. Geldpolitik kann Wachstum und Beschäftigung nicht dauerhaft erhöhen 11 III. Die Praxis der Geldmengenziele 14 1. Zur Bedeutung der Geldmengenziele 14 2. Diskretionäre Politik trotz Geldmengenziel 15 IV. Sollen sich die Notenbanken an anderen Indikatoren orientieren? 20 1. Was sagen Zinsen über den Kurs der Geldpolitik aus? 20 2. Sind Rohstoffpreise ein geeigneter monetärer Indikator? ... 23 3. Setzt die Stabilität des Preisniveaus stabile Wechselkurse voraus? .. 26 4. Statt eines Indikators viele verschiedene Indikatoren? 29 V. Geldmengenorientierung sollte beibehalten werden 31 1. Zusammenhang zwischen Geldmenge und wirtschaftlicher Aktivität besteht nach wie vor 31 2. Geldmengenregeln sind nicht obsolet 34 3. Konkrete Beispiele für die Ausgestaltung von Geldmengenregeln . . . . 35 VI. Stärkere gesetzliche Bindung gegen erratische Geldpolitik 39 1. Warum Geldmengenregeln nicht eingehalten werden 39 2. Geldmengenregeln müssen gesetzlich festgelegt werden 41 3. Wie die Geldverfassung aussehen könnte 42 Literaturverzeichnis 44

Suggested Citation

  • Langfeldt, Enno & Scheide, Joachim & Trapp, Peter, 1988. "Inflationsgefahren werden größer - Welchen Kurs soll die Geldpolitik steuern? Thesen zum 38. Kieler Konjunkturgespräch," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 394, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkie:394
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/394/1/025202340.PDF
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bennett T. McCallum, 1987. "The case for rules in the conduct of monetary policy: a concrete example," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 73(Sep), pages 10-18.
    2. Schatz, Klaus-Werner & Scheide, Joachim & Trapp, Peter, 1988. "Low growth and high unemployment in Europe - Causes and policy options," Kiel Discussion Papers 140, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    3. Meltzer, Allan H, 1987. "Limits of Short-run Stabilization Policy: Presidential Address to the Western Economic Association, July 3, 1986," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 25(1), pages 1-14, January.
    4. Scheide, Joachim, 1987. "Anstieg und Fall des Dollarkurses - Folgen der amerikanischen Geldpolitik?," Kiel Discussion Papers 131, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    5. Jean-Claude Chouraqui & Michael Driscoll & Marc-Olivier Strauss-Kahn, 1988. "The Effects of Monetary Policy on the Real Sector: An Overview of Empirical Evidence for Selected OECD Economies," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 51, OECD Publishing.
    6. Milton Friedman, 1961. "The Lag in Effect of Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 69, pages 447-447.
    7. McKinnon, Ronald I, 1988. "Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies for International Financial Stability: A Proposal," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 2(1), pages 83-103, Winter.
    8. Martine Durand & Sveinbjörn Blöndal, 1988. "Are Commodity Prices Leading Indicators of OECD Prices?," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 49, OECD Publishing.
    9. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-491, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Langfeldt, Enno & Scheide, Joachim & Trapp, Peter, 1988. "Inflationsgefahren werden größer - Welchen Kurs soll die Geldpolitik steuern? Thesen zum 38. Kieler Konjunkturgespräch," Kiel Discussion Papers 142, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    2. Langfeldt, Enno & Scheide, Joachim & Trapp, Peter, 1988. "Is money supply targeting obsolete?," Kiel Working Papers 338, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    3. David Beckworth & Joshua R. Hendrickson, 2020. "Nominal GDP Targeting and the Taylor Rule on an Even Playing Field," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(1), pages 269-286, February.
    4. Scheide, Joachim, 1993. "Preisniveaustabilität: Geldmengenregeln auch für unabhängige Notenbanken," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 1575, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    5. Berlemann, Michael & Hielscher, Kai, 2009. "Measuring Effective Monetary Policy Conservatism," Working Paper 89/2009, Helmut Schmidt University, Hamburg.
    6. Goodhart, Charles, 1989. "The Conduct of Monetary Policy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(396), pages 293-346, June.
    7. Benchimol, Jonathan & Fourçans, André, 2016. "Nominal income versus Taylor-type rules in practice," ESSEC Working Papers WP1610, ESSEC Research Center, ESSEC Business School.
    8. Masciandaro, Donato, 2022. "Independence, conservatism, and beyond: Monetary policy, central bank governance and central banker preferences (1981–2021)," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    9. Akhand Akhtar Hossain, 2009. "Central Banking and Monetary Policy in the Asia-Pacific," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 12777.
    10. Maurice Obstfeld, 1995. "Intenational Currency Experience: New Lessons and Lessons Relearned," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(1, 25th A), pages 119-220.
    11. Yvan Lengwiler & Athanasios Orphanides, 2002. "Optimal Discretion," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 104(2), pages 261-276, June.
    12. Lecarpentier-Moyal, Sylvie & Payelle, Nathalie, 2001. "Règle monétaire et cible de prévisions d’inflation," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 77(4), pages 531-568, décembre.
    13. Michael Berlemann & Kai Hielscher, 2016. "Measuring Effective Monetary Policy Conservatism of Central Banks: A Dynamic Approach," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 17(1), pages 105-132, May.
    14. Mehrotra, Aaron & Sánchez-Fung, José R., 2011. "Assessing McCallum and Taylor rules in a cross-section of emerging market economies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 207-228, April.
    15. J.M. Berk, 1998. "Monetary transmission: what do we know and how can we use it?," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 51(205), pages 145-170.
    16. Manfred Neumann, 1991. "Precommitment by central bank independence," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 2(2), pages 95-112, June.
    17. repec:zbw:bofrdp:1995_021 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Benchimol, Jonathan & Fourçans, André, 2019. "Central bank losses and monetary policy rules: A DSGE investigation," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 289-303.
    19. Racette, Daniel & Raynauld, Jacques & Lauzon, Simon, 1992. "La règle monétaire de McCallum revue à la lumière de la méthodologie de Litterman," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 68(1), pages 262-282, mars et j.
    20. Gundlach, Erich & Scheide, Joachim & Sinn, Stefan, 1990. "Die Entwicklung nationaler Auslandsvermögenspositionen: Konsequenzen für die Wirtschaftspolitik," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 414, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    21. Joachim Scheide, 1989. "A K-percent rule for monetary policy in West Germany," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 125(2), pages 326-336, June.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkie:394. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iwkiede.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.