Financial stress, regime switching and macrodynamics: Theory and empirics for the US, EU and non-EU countries
AbstractOver-borrowing and financial stress has recently become an important issue in macroeconomic and policy discussions in the US as well as in the EU. In this paper we study two regimes of financial stress. In a regime of high financial stress, stress shocks can have large and persistent impacts on the real side of the economy whereas in regimes of low stress, shocks can easily dissipate having no lasting effects. In order to study the macroeconomic dynamics, with alternative paths resulting from financial stress shocks, we introduce a macromodel with a finance-macro link which uses multi-period decisions framework of economic agents. The agents can, in a finite horizon context, borrow and accumulate assets where however the above two scenarios may occur. The model is solved through nonlinear model predictive control (NMPC). Empirically then we use a Multi-Regime VAR (MRVAR) to study the impact of financial stress shocks on the macroeconomy in a large number of countries. --
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Kiel Institute for the World Economy in its series Economics Discussion Papers with number 2013-24.
Date of creation: 2013
Date of revision:
financial stress; macro dynamics; MRVAR;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
- G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2013-03-30 (All new papers)
- NEP-BAN-2013-03-30 (Banking)
- NEP-MAC-2013-03-30 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-OPM-2013-03-30 (Open Economy Macroeconomic)
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