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The social cost of CO2 from the PAGE09 model

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  • Hope, Chris W.

Abstract

A new version of the PAGE integrated assessment model, PAGE09, is introduced. The most important scientific, impact, emission and adaptation inputs in the latest default version of the model, PAGE09 v1.7 are described. The scientific and economic impact results are presented for a business as usual (BAU) emissions scenario, and for a low emissions scenario which aims to have a 50% chance of keeping the rise in global mean temperatures below 2 degC. Today's mean social cost of CO2 is about $100 per tonne of CO2 in the BAU scenario, and about $50 per tonne in the low emissions scenario. The major influences on the SCCO2 are found to be the transient climate response, the pure time preference rate, the elasticity of the marginal utility of consumption, the feedback response time of the earth and the weight on non-economic impacts. Less than 10% of the mean SCCO2 comes from impacts in annex 1 from annex 1 emissions, while over 45% comes from impacts in the rest of the world (RoW) from RoW emissions. About one third of the mean SCCO2 comes from impacts in the RoW caused by emissions in annex 1, while just over 10% comes from impacts in annex 1 caused by emissions in the RoW. --

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Kiel Institute for the World Economy in its series Economics Discussion Papers with number 2011-39.

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Date of creation: 2011
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwedp:201139

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Keywords: Climate change; integrated assessment modelling; uncertainty; social cost;

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  1. Anthoff, David & Hepburn, Cameron & Tol, Richard S.J., 2009. "Equity weighting and the marginal damage costs of climate change," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 68(3), pages 836-849, January.
  2. Detlef Vuuren & Jason Lowe & Elke Stehfest & Laila Gohar & Andries Hof & Chris Hope & Rachel Warren & Malte Meinshausen & Gian-Kasper Plattner, 2011. "How well do integrated assessment models simulate climate change?," Climatic Change, Springer, Springer, vol. 104(2), pages 255-285, January.
  3. Kelly de Bruin & Rob Dellink & Shardul Agrawala, 2009. "Economic Aspects of Adaptation to Climate Change: Integrated Assessment Modelling of Adaptation Costs and Benefits," OECD Environment Working Papers 6, OECD Publishing.
  4. Ackerman, Frank & Stanton, Elizabeth A. & Hope, Chris & Alberth, Stephane, 2009. "Did the Stern Review underestimate US and global climate damages?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2717-2721, July.
  5. Hope, Chris, 2008. "Discount rates, equity weights and the social cost of carbon," Energy Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 1011-1019, May.
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Cited by:
  1. Richard S.J. Tol, 2012. "Targets for Global Climate Policy: An Overview," Working Paper Series 3712, Department of Economics, University of Sussex.
  2. Pablo Salas, 2013. "Literature Review of Energy-Economics Models, Regarding Technological Change and Uncertainty," 4CMR Working Paper Series, University of Cambridge, Department of Land Economy, Cambridge Centre for Climate Change Mitigation Research 003, University of Cambridge, Department of Land Economy, Cambridge Centre for Climate Change Mitigation Research.
  3. Elizabeth Kopits & Alex L. Marten & Ann Wolverton, 2013. "Moving Forward with Incorporating "Catastrophic" Climate Change into Policy Analysis," NCEE Working Paper Series, National Center for Environmental Economics, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 201301, National Center for Environmental Economics, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, revised Jan 2013.

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