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Zur Wirkung von Ölpreisänderungen auf die deutsche Konjunktur

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  • Jannsen, Nils
  • Plödt, Martin

Abstract

Ölpreisrückgänge wirken für sich genommen stimulierend auf erdölimportierende Volkswirtschaften wie Deutschland, da sie die Ölimportrechnung reduzieren. Dies spiegelt sich für Deutschland beispielsweise in der kräftigen Verbesserung der Terms of Trade wider, die sich seit dem Beginn des Ölpreisverfalls im Jahr 2012 ergeben hat. Auch hat sich die Ölimportrechnung seit dem Jahr 2012 um mehr als 40 Prozent oder rund 1 Prozent in Relation zum Bruttoinlandsprodukt verringert, bei in etwa unveränderter Menge von importiertem Rohöl. Der jüngste seit Dezember des abgelaufenen Jahres verzeichnete Ölpreisrückgang dürfte die Ölimportrechnung im laufenden Jahr noch einmal um rund 0,4 Prozentpunkte in Relation zum Bruttoinlandsprodukt reduzieren, sofern der Ölpreis in Euro gerechnet in etwa auf seinem derzeitigen Niveau bleibt.

Suggested Citation

  • Jannsen, Nils & Plödt, Martin, 2016. "Zur Wirkung von Ölpreisänderungen auf die deutsche Konjunktur," Kiel Insight 2016.8, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwbox:20168
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lutz Kilian, 2009. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1053-1069, June.
    2. Plödt, Martin & Jannsen, Nils & Schwarzmüller, Tim, 2015. "Zur Wirkung des Ölpreisrückgangs auf den deutschen Außenhandel," Kiel Insight 2015.6, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    3. Herwartz, Helmut & Plödt, Martin, 2016. "The macroeconomic effects of oil price shocks: Evidence from a statistical identification approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 30-44.
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