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Der Einfluss von Long-only-Indexfonds auf die Preisfindung und das Marktergebnis an landwirtschaftlichen Warenterminmärkten


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  • Prehn, Sören
  • Glauben, Thomas
  • Loy, Jens-Peter
  • Pies, Ingo
  • Will, Matthias Georg
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    Long-only-Indexfonds stehen seit geraumer Zeit unter Verdacht, für die Preisanstiege an landwirtschaftlichen Warenterminmärkten, insbesondere für Getreide, verantwortlich zu sein. Diese Arbeit untersucht anhand partieller Gleichgewichtskonzepte die langfristige Marktwirkung von Long-only-Indexfonds. Die Analyse zeigt, dass Long-only-Indexfonds keineswegs Preise treiben, sondern stabilisieren. Der Markteintritt von Long-only-Indexfonds verringert die Risikoprämie. Landwirte können sich zu geringeren Kosten am Warenterminmarkt absichern. Letzteres fördert die Lagerhaltung und schwächt so saisonale Preisschwankungen am Kassamarkt ab. Der Markteintritt von Long-only-Indexfonds ist somit auch im Interesse der Konsumenten. Lediglich Long-only-Indexfonds selbst profitieren nicht von einem weiteren Markteintritt von Long-only-Indexfonds, da deren Rentabilität negativ korreliert ist mit der Anzahl sich am Warenterminmarkt befindlichen Long-only-Indexfonds. Von einer Regulierung von Long-only-Indexfonds sollte abgesehen werden. -- For a considerable time, it has been suspected that long-only index funds are responsible for price increases on agricultural futures markets, particularly for grain. Utilizing market diagrams we analyze the long-term market impacts of long-only index funds. Our analysis reveals that long-only index funds by no means lead to surges in the market, but stabilize it. The market entry of long-only index funds lowers risk premiums, so farmers can hedge their price risk at lower costs. This favors storage and dampens seasonal price fluctuations at spot markets. Thus, the market entry of long-only index funds also favors consumers. Only longonly index funds themselves do not profit from the entry of additional long-only index funds. Indeed, their profitability is negatively correlated with the total number of long-only index funds on the futures market. Therefore, one should abstain from regulating the business of long-only index funds.

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    Paper provided by Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Central and Eastern Europe (IAMO) in its series IAMO Discussion Papers with number 142.

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    Date of creation: 2013
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    Handle: RePEc:zbw:iamodp:142

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    Keywords: Landwirtschaftliche Warenterminmärkte; Preisbildung; Long-only-Indexfonds; Agricultural Futures Markets; Price Discovery; Long-only Index Funds;

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    1. Sanders, Dwight R. & Irwin, Scott H. & Merrin, Robert P., 2008. "The Adequacy of Speculation in Agricultural Futures Markets: Too Much of a Good Thing?," Marketing and Outlook Research Reports, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics 37512, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics.
    2. Frank, Julieta & Garcia, Philip, 2005. "Time-Varying Risk Premium or Informational Inefficiency? Further Evidence in Agricultural Futures Markets," 2005 Conference, April 18-19, 2005, St. Louis, Missouri, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management 19051, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    3. Pietz, Matthäus, 2009. "Risk premia in the German electricity futures market," CEFS Working Paper Series 2009-07, Center for Entrepreneurial and Financial Studies (CEFS), Technische Universität München.
    4. Christopher R. Knittel & Robert S. Pindyck, 2013. "The Simple Economics of Commodity Price Speculation," NBER Working Papers 18951, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Dwight R. Sanders & Scott H. Irwin, 2012. "A Reappraisal of Investing in Commodity Futures Markets," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 34(3), pages 515-530.
    6. Irwin, Scott H. & Sanders, Dwight R., 2012. "Testing the Masters Hypothesis in commodity futures markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 256-269.
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