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Eastern Enlargement of the EU : A Comprehensive Welfare Assessment

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  • Kohler, Wilhelm K.
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    Abstract

    This paper takes a welfare-view on eastern enlargement of the EU, focusing on incumbent countries. Enlargement is decomposed into three elements: Single-market integration on commodity markets, budgetary costs from EU-expenditure policies, and singlemarket- induced migration from new to present member countries. I first use an analytical model to derive a welfare equation that identifies the principle channels for incumbent country welfare gains and losses from enlargement, including product differentiation, capital accumulation, and unemployment due to search-costs. I then propose a method that allows to extend welfare results obtained from a detailed calibrated version of this model for Germany to other incumbent countries. The approach relies on model elasticities extracted from the German model which are then applied to other countries´ idiosyncratic "enlargement-shocks". Constructing detailed indices for such country specific "enlargement-shocks", I arrive at characteristic inter-country pattern of enlargement- induced welfare effects for all EU15 countries. Aggregating these across countries reveals enlargement to be beneficial for the union as a whole, although several countries stand to suffer welfare losses. --

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA) in its series HWWA Discussion Papers with number 260.

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    Date of creation: 2004
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    Handle: RePEc:zbw:hwwadp:26377

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    Web page: http://www.econstor.eu/handle/10419/20
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    Related research

    Keywords: EU Enlargement; Economic Integration; Commercial Policy; Migration; Welfare Analysis; Computable General Equilibrium; Search Unemployment;

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    References

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    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    1. Christopher A. Pissarides, 2000. "Equilibrium Unemployment Theory, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262161877.
    2. Christian Keuschnigg & Mirela Keuschnigg & Wilhelm Kohler, 2001. "The German Perspective on Eastern EU Enlargement," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(4), pages 513-542, 04.
    3. Keuschnigg, Christian & Kohler, Wilhelm K., 1998. "Eastern Enlargement of the EU: How much is it Worth for Austria?," CEPR Discussion Papers 1786, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Fritz Breuss & Fritz Schebeck, 1999. "Costs and Benefits of EU Eastern Enlargement for Austria," Austrian Economic Quarterly, WIFO, vol. 4(1), pages 43-53, January.
    5. Christian Keuschnigg, 1998. "Investment Externalities and a Corrective Subsidy," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 449-469, October.
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    Cited by:
    1. Wilhelm Kohler & Christian Arndt & Anselm Mattes & Michael Knogler & Fidelis Lankes & Jarko Fidmuc, 2007. "Die neuen Mitglieder: Motor oder Bremse der europäischen Integration?," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 60(14), pages 03-20, 07.
    2. Wilhelm Kohler & Gabriel Felbermayr, . "Can International Migration Ever Be Made a Pareto Improvement?," Discussion Papers 09/01, University of Nottingham, GEP.
    3. Marcel DRACEA, 2008. "The implications of the accession to the European Union upon taxation in Romania," Annals of University of Craiova - Economic Sciences Series, University of Craiova, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 2(36), pages 458-465, may.
    4. Glebe, Thilo W., 2009. "Enlargement of the European Union: A movement towards the optimal trade bloc size?," Agricultural Economics Review, Greek Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 10(2), June.
    5. Hiro Lee & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, 2006. "Deep Integration and Its Impacts on Nonmembers: EU Enlargement and East Asia," Discussion Paper Series 184, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.
    6. Marius Brülhart & Matthieu Crozet & Pamina Koenig, 2004. "Enlargement and the EU Periphery: The Impact of Changing Market Potential," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00096285, HAL.
    7. Fritz Breuss, 2007. "A Prototype Model of EU's 2007 Enlargement," FIW Working Paper series 007, FIW.
    8. Egger, Peter & Larch, Mario, 2011. "An assessment of the Europe agreements' effects on bilateral trade, GDP, and welfare," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 263-279, February.
    9. Schukkink, Martijn & Niemann, Arne, 2012. "Portugal and the EU’s Eastern Enlargement: A logic of identity endorsement," European Integration online Papers (EIoP), European Community Studies Association Austria (ECSA-A), vol. 16, 07.
    10. Tanja Broz, 2011. "Five Years of an Enlarged EU – A Positive Sum Game, Filip Keereman and István Székely, eds., Berlin Heidelberg: Springer-Verlag, 2010, pp. 256, ISBN 978-3-642-12515-7," Croatian Economic Survey, The Institute of Economics, Zagreb, vol. 13(1), pages 173-182, April.
    11. Thilo W. Glebe, 2006. "National welfare effects of trade bloc enlargement," Discussion Papers 022006, Technische Universität München, Environmental Economics and Agricultural Policy Group, revised 2008.
    12. Fritz Breuss, 2009. "An evaluation of the EU's Fifth Enlargement With special focus on Bulgaria and Romania," European Economy - Economic Papers 361, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    13. Fink, Gerhard, 2009. "Comparative advantage, regional specialization and income distribution: The case of Austria in perspective," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 239-259.

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