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Der Taylor-Zins und die europäische Geldpolitik 1999 - 2009

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  • Treu, Johannes

Abstract

Die von John Taylor entwickelte und nach ihm benannte Regel ist trotz einiger dargestellter Kritikpunkte ein probates Instrument zur Beschreibung und Beurteilung unterschiedlichster Geldpolitiken. So zeigt sich, dass mit Hilfe der Taylor Regel und dem daraus berechneten Taylor Zins die europäische Geldpolitik für den Zeitraum von 1999 bis 2009 ex post beschrieben werden kann. Es lässt sich zudem vermuten, dass die Europäische Zentralbank bei der Durchführung ihrer Politik einer solchen Regel gefolgt ist. Allerdings wurde ein solches Vorgehen von der Europäischen Zentralbank stets verneinet, so dass der hier berechnete Taylor Zins nur als Beurteilungsmaßstab gesehen werden kann. Vor diesem Hintergrund zeigt sich, dass die europäische Geldpolitik für den Zeitraum 2000 bis 2008 als zu expansiv gesehen werden kann. Einzig zu Beginn einer einheitlichen europäischen Geldpolitik im Jahr 1999 kann von einem neutralen Taylor Zins gesprochen werden. Das bedeutet, hier entspricht der berechnete Zins der tatsächlich durchgeführten Geldpolitik. Auffällig ist zudem das Jahr 2009, hier ergibt sich aus der Berechnung ein negativer Taylor Zins und im Vergleich mit dem EONIA und dem EURIBOR eine zu restriktive Geldpolitik für den Euroraum. Jedoch kann dieses Ergebnis aufgrund der Finanz- und Wirtschaftskrise als Ausreißer gesehen werden. Trotz der guten Beschreibung der europäischen Geldpolitik mit Hilfe des Taylor Zinses muss abschließend fest gehalten werden, dass es sich hierbei nur um eine grobe Orientierungsgröße handelt. Daher sollte bei der Interpretation und besonders bei der Ableitung möglicher zinspolitischer Empfehlungen Vorsicht angebracht sein. --

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Paper provided by Ernst Moritz Arndt University of Greifswald, Faculty of Law and Economics in its series Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Diskussionspapiere with number 03/2010.

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Date of creation: 2010
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:grewdp:032010

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  1. Svensson, Lars E.O., 1997. "Inflation Forecast Targeting: Implementing and Monitoring Inflation Targets," Seminar Papers 615, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
  2. Odile Chagny & Jörg Döpke, 2001. "Measures of the Output Gap in the Euro-Zone: An Empirical Assessment of Selected Methods," Kiel Working Papers 1053, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  3. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1997. "Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Some International Evidence," NBER Working Papers 6254, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Gerlach, Stefan & Schnabel, Gert, 1999. "The Taylor Rule and Interest Rates in the EMU Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 2271, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Ansgar Belke & Jens Klose, 2009. "Does the ECB Rely on a Taylor Rule?: Comparing Ex-post with Real Time Data," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 917, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  6. Gerdesmeier, Dieter & Roffia, Barbara, 2004. "Taylor rules for the euro area: the issue of real-time data," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,37, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  7. Christophe Kamps & Christian Pierdzioch, 2002. "Geldpolitik und vorausschauende Taylor-Regeln � Theorie und Empirie am Beispiel der Deutschen Bundesbank," Kiel Working Papers 1089, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  8. Athanasios Orphanides, 2003. "Historical monetary policy analysis and the Taylor rule," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-36, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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  11. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2001. "Zwei Indikatoren zur Beurteilung der Geldpolitik der EZB," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 54(05), pages 47-49, October.
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Cited by:
  1. Afflatet, Nicolas, 2014. "European Monetary Policy in the Heterogeneous Currency Area and the Open Question of Convergence," EconStor Preprints 93382, ZBW - German National Library of Economics.

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