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Trends in Rainfall and Economic Growth in Africa: A Neglected Cause of the Growth Tragedy

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  • Barrios Cobos, Salvador
  • Bertinelli, Luisito
  • Strobl, Eric

Abstract

We examine the role of trends in rainfall in the poor growth performance of sub-Saharan African nations relative to other developing countries. To do so we use a new crosscountry panel climatic data set in an empirical economic growth framework. Our results show that rainfall has been a significant determinant of poor economic growth for Africa, but not for other developing countries. Depending on the benchmark measure of potential rainfall, we estimate that the direct impact under the scenario of no decline in rainfall would have resulted in a reduction of between around 15 and 40 per cent of today's gap in African GDP per capita relative to the rest of the developing world.

Suggested Citation

  • Barrios Cobos, Salvador & Bertinelli, Luisito & Strobl, Eric, 2008. "Trends in Rainfall and Economic Growth in Africa: A Neglected Cause of the Growth Tragedy," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Zurich 2008 41, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:gdec08:41
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    1. John Horn, 1965. "A rationale and test for the number of factors in factor analysis," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 30(2), pages 179-185, June.
    2. Robert J. Barro, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(2), pages 407-443.
    3. Nazrul Islam, 1995. "Growth Empirics: A Panel Data Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(4), pages 1127-1170.
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    1. Exenberger, Andreas & Pondorfer, Andreas & Wolters, Maik H., 2014. "Estimating the impact of climate change on agricultural production: Accounting for technology heterogeneity across countries," Kiel Working Papers 1920, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    2. Markus Brückner & Antonio Ciccone, 2011. "Rain and the Democratic Window of Opportunity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(3), pages 923-947, May.
    3. O’Gorman Melanie, 2015. "Africa’s missed agricultural revolution: a quantitative study of the policy options," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 15(2), pages 561-602, July.
    4. Lucia de Strasser, 2017. "Calling for Nexus Thinking in Africa’s Energy Planning," ESP: Energy Scenarios and Policy 263161, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    5. Anderson, Kym & Brückner, Markus, 2011. "Price Distortions and Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa," CEPR Discussion Papers 8530, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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