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Älter gleich kränker? Auswirkungen des Zugewinns an Lebenserwartung auf die Pflegewahrscheinlichkeit

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  • Hackmann, Tobias
  • Moog, Stefan
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    Abstract

    Bei bisherigen Vorausberechnungen der zukünftigen Anzahl an Pflegefällen wurde meist vereinfachend unterstellt, dass die altersspezifische Pflegewahrscheinlichkeit (Prävalenz) in Zukunft konstant bleibt. Diese in der Wissenschaft als Status quo Hypothese bezeichnete Annahme ist allerdings nicht unumstritten. So ist bis heute nicht abschließend geklärt, wie sich der zu erwartende Zugewinn an Lebenserwartung auf die Pflegewahrscheinlichkeit im Alter auswirkt. Im folgenden Beitrag wird dem Leser durch die Analyse bisheriger empirischer Befunde zunächst ein Anhaltspunkt gegeben, ob in Zukunft eher mit einer Ab- oder Zunahme der Pflegewahrscheinlichkeit zu rechnen ist. Anschließend wird anhand eines Stromgrößenmodells aufgezeigt welche Bedingungen vorliegen müssen, damit es zu einem Anstieg oder Absinken der Pflegewahrscheinlichkeit kommt. Hierauf aufbauend wird ein Korridor bestimmt, in dem sich die zukünftige Anzahl an Pflegefällen bewegt. --

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Research Center for Generational Contracts (FZG), University of Freiburg in its series FZG Discussion Papers with number 26.

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    Date of creation: 2008
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    Handle: RePEc:zbw:fzgdps:26

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    Keywords: Pflegeversicherung; Mortalität; Kompression; Medikalisierung;

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    References

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    1. Breyer, Friedrich & Felder, Stefan, 2006. "Life expectancy and health care expenditures: A new calculation for Germany using the costs of dying," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 178-186, January.
    2. Stefan Felder & Peter Zweifel & Andreas Werblow, 2006. "Population Ageing and Health Care Expenditure: Is Long-term Care Different?," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 142(V), pages 43-48.
    3. Andreas Werblow & Stefan Felder & Peter Zweifel, 2007. "Population ageing and health care expenditure: a school of 'red herrings'?," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(10), pages 1109-1126.
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    Cited by:
    1. Hackmann, Tobias & Moog, Stefan, 2008. "Pflege im Spannungsfeld von Angebot und Nachfrage," FZG Discussion Papers 33, Research Center for Generational Contracts (FZG), University of Freiburg.

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