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The Lucas Paradox and the quality of institutions: then and now

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  • Schularick, Moritz
  • Steger, Thomas M.

Abstract

In the first era of financial globalization (1880-1914), global capital market integration led to substantial net capital movements from rich to poor economies. The historical experience stands in contrast to the contemporary globalization where gross capital mobility is equally high, but did not incite a substantial transfer of savings from rich to poor economies. Using data for the historical and modern periods we extend Lucas’ (1990) original model and show that differences in institutional quality between rich and poor countries can account for the sharply divergent patterns of international capital movements. --

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics in its series Discussion Papers with number 2008/3.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:fubsbe:20083

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Related research

Keywords: capital market integration; financial globalization; economic history;

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References

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  1. Martin Feldstein & Charles Horioka, 1979. "Domestic Savings and International Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 0310, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Laura Alfaro & Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Vadym Volosovych, 2005. "Why Doesn't Capital Flow from Rich to Poor Countries? An Empirical Investigation," NBER Working Papers 11901, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Maurice Obstfeld & Alan M. Taylor, 2003. "Globalization and Capital Markets," NBER Chapters, in: Globalization in Historical Perspective, pages 121-188 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Hatton, Timothy J. & Williamson, Jeffrey G, 2006. "What Determines Immigrations' Impact? Comparing Two Global Centuries," CEPR Discussion Papers 5885, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Matthew T. Jones and Maurice Obstfeld., 1997. "Saving, Investment, and Gold: A Reassessment of Historical Current Account Data," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C97-094, University of California at Berkeley.
  6. Eichengreen, Barry, 1990. "Trends and Cycles in Foreign Lending," CEPR Discussion Papers 451, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Benhabib Jess & Perli Roberto, 1994. "Uniqueness and Indeterminacy: On the Dynamics of Endogenous Growth," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 113-142, June.
  8. Niall Ferguson & Moritz Schularick, 2004. "The Empire Effect: The Determinants of Country Risk in the First Age of Globalization, 1880-1913," Working Papers 04-03, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
  9. William N. Goetzmann & Andrey Ukhov & Ning Zhu, 2004. "China and the World Financial Markets 1870-1930:," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm9, Yale School of Management.
  10. Andrei Shleifer, 2003. "Will The Sovereign Debt Market Survive?," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 2000, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  11. Alan M. Taylor, 1996. "International Capital Mobility in History: The Saving-Investment Relationship," NBER Working Papers 5743, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Robert J. Barro & Jong-Wha Lee, 2000. "International Data on Educational Attainment Updates and Implications," NBER Working Papers 7911, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Mitchener, Kris James & Weidenmier, Marc, 2005. "Empire, Public Goods, and the Roosevelt Corollary," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 65(03), pages 658-692, September.
  14. Michael A. Clemens & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2004. "Wealth bias in the first global capital market boom, 1870-1913," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(495), pages 304-337, 04.
  15. Moritz Schularick, 2006. "A tale of two 'globalizations': capital flows from rich to poor in two eras of global finance," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(4), pages 339-354.
  16. Kris James Mitchener & Marc D. Weidenmier, 2004. "Empire, Public Goods, and the Roosevelt Corollary," NBER Working Papers 10729, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Cited by:
  1. Corinne Deléchat & John Wakeman-Linn & Smita Wagh & Gustavo Ramirez, 2009. "Sub-Saharan Africa's Integration in the Global Financial Markets," IMF Working Papers 09/114, International Monetary Fund.

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