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Zufall und Notwendigkeit: Untersuchungen zur mathematischen Modellierung des Produktlebenszyklus

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  • Herold, Jörg
  • Völker, Lutz
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    Abstract

    Die Produktlebenszyklusanalyse ist ein wichtiges Instrument der Produktpolitik. Verschiedene Diffusionsmodelle werden in der Theorie und Praxis angewendet, um Aussagen über künftige Umsatzverläufe zu erhalten. Die mathematische Modellierung geht grundsätzlich von einem deterministischen Zusammenhang für die Verbreitung der Produktinnovationen aus. Die Einflüsse des deterministischen Chaos und des Zufalls auf den Produktlebenszyklus werden diskutiert und in bestehende deterministische Diffusionsmodelle eingebaut. Modellrechnungen zeigen verschiedene Einsatzmöglichkeiten des erweiterten Modells für die Beschreibung des Produktlebenszyklus. -- The product life circle is an important instrument of product policy. Various diffusion models are applied in theory and in practice, in order to obtain prognoses about future sales revenue. The mathematical modeling involved is based on a deterministic context for the spread of product innovations. The influences of deterministic chaos and randomness on product life circles are discussed and integrated into existing deterministic diffusion models. Model results indicate various possible fields of application of the expanded model in describing product life circles.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by University of Applied Sciences Jena, Department of Business Administration in its series Jena Contributions to Economic Research with number 2010,2.

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    Date of creation: 2010
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    Handle: RePEc:zbw:fhjbwf:20102

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    Keywords: Produktlebenszyklus; Simulation; iteratives Verfahren; strategische Marketingentscheidungen; Determinismus; Zufall; deterministisches Chaos;

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    References

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    1. Welsch, Julia, 2006. "Dynamik der Arbeitslosigkeit - eine vergleichende Analyse auf der Ebene ausgewählter Arbeitsagenturbezirke," Jena Contributions to Economic Research 2006,3, University of Applied Sciences Jena, Department of Business Administration.
    2. Sauer, Thomas & Stoetzer, Matthias-Wolfgang & Gerlach, Andrea, 2007. "Forms and regional distribution of knowledge transfer by German universities," Jena Contributions to Economic Research 2007,3, University of Applied Sciences Jena, Department of Business Administration.
    3. Stoetzer, Matthias-Wolfgang & Krähmer, Christian, 2007. "Regionale Nachfrageeffekte der Hochschulen - methodische Probleme und Ergebnisse empirischer Untersuchungen für die Bundesrepublik Deutschland," Jena Contributions to Economic Research 2007,6, University of Applied Sciences Jena, Department of Business Administration.
    4. Sauer, Thomas & Stoetzer, Matthias-Wolfgang & Gerlach, Andrea, 2007. "Spatial localization of knowledge-transfer channels and face-to-face contacts: A survey of the Jena university-industry linkages," Jena Contributions to Economic Research 2007,4, University of Applied Sciences Jena, Department of Business Administration.
    5. Gerlach, Andrea & Sauer, Thomas & Stoetzer, Matthias-Wolfgang, 2005. "Formen und regionale Verteilung des Wissenstransfers von Hochschulen: Eine repräsentative Fallstudie für Jena," Jena Contributions to Economic Research 2005,1, University of Applied Sciences Jena, Department of Business Administration.
    6. Schwartz, Michael & Hornych, Christoph, 2010. "Informal networking: An overview of the literature and an agenda for future research," Jena Contributions to Economic Research 2010,1, University of Applied Sciences Jena, Department of Business Administration.
    7. von Pöllnitz, Holger, 2007. "Patentschutz in der Volksrepublik China aus der Sicht eines deutschen Technologieunternehmens," Jena Contributions to Economic Research 2007,1, University of Applied Sciences Jena, Department of Business Administration.
    8. Schwartz, Michael, 2006. "Die Learning Economy aus Netzwerkperspektive: Mechanismen und Probleme," Jena Contributions to Economic Research 2006,4, University of Applied Sciences Jena, Department of Business Administration.
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    Cited by:
    1. Stoetzer, Matthias-Wolfgang & Beyer, Carolin & Mattheis, Julia & Schultheiß, Saskia, 2014. "Der Einfluss der Studiengebühren auf die Zahl der Studienanfänger an deutschen Hochschulen," Jena Contributions to Economic Research 2014/1, University of Applied Sciences Jena, Department of Business Administration.
    2. Herold, Jörg & Ahrens, Bernd, 2011. "Reversibilität und Irreversibilität: Mathematische Untersuchungen zum Zeitverhalten des Produktlebenszyklus," Jena Contributions to Economic Research 2011,5, University of Applied Sciences Jena, Department of Business Administration.
    3. Giese, Stefanie & Otte, Franziska & Stoetzer, Matthias-Wolfgang & Berger, Christian, 2013. "Einflussfaktoren des Studienerfolges im betriebswirtschaftlichen Studium: Eine empirische Untersuchung," Jena Contributions to Economic Research 2013/1, University of Applied Sciences Jena, Department of Business Administration.

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