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Monte-Carlo Simulation und Due Diligence: Ein methodischer Ansatz zur computergestützten Aggregierung von Wahrscheinlichkeitsverteilungen aus Expertenbefragungen

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  • Klein, Martin

Abstract

The combination of experts' probability distributions involved in a due diligence is valuable for encapsulating the accumulated information for decision makers and providing the current state of expert opinion regarding important uncertainties. Therefore, this paper shows how to create and combinate experts' probability distributions which can be used in a monte-carlo simulation to calculate company values.

Suggested Citation

  • Klein, Martin, 2010. "Monte-Carlo Simulation und Due Diligence: Ein methodischer Ansatz zur computergestützten Aggregierung von Wahrscheinlichkeitsverteilungen aus Expertenbefragungen," Working Papers in Accounting Valuation Auditing 2010-5, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Chair of Accounting and Auditing.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:fauacc:20105
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    Keywords

    Unternehmensbewertung; Due Diligence; Monte-Carlo Simulation; Delphi-Methode; Szenarioanalyse; Sensitivitätsanalyse; Expertenbefragung; Wahrscheinlichkeitsverteilung; Simulationssoftware; valuation; due diligence; monte-carlo method; simulation; business forecast; forecast uncertainty; scenario analysis; sensitivity analysis; probability distribution; combining probabilities; expert judgment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C80 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - General
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • G34 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Mergers; Acquisitions; Restructuring; Corporate Governance

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