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On the relevance of exports for regional output growth in China

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  • Dreger, Christian
  • Zhang, Yanqun

Abstract

Despite high economic growth during the last decades, China is still vulnerable to shocks arising from industrial states. The advanced economies determine Chinese export performance, with subsequent effects on output growth. Using a production function approach, this paper examines to which extent regional GDP growth in China is export driven. In a panel of 28 Chinese provinces, series are splitted into common and idiosyncratic components, the latter being stationary. The results indicate cointegration between the common components of GDP, the capital stock and exports. In equilibrium, exports increase GDP by more than their impact expected from the national accounts. While exports and capital are weakly exogenous, GDP responds to deviations from the long run. An adjustment pattern can be detected for almost all regions, except of some provinces in the Western part of the country. --

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Paper provided by European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), Department of Business Administration and Economics in its series Discussion Papers with number 331.

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Date of creation: 2013
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:euvwdp:331

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Keywords: Chinese economy; panel cointegration; export led growth;

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  1. Peter Pedroni, 1999. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Department of Economics Working Papers 2000-02, Department of Economics, Williams College.
  2. Nelson C. Mark & Masao Ogaki & Donggyu Sul, 2005. "Dynamic Seemingly Unrelated Cointegrating Regressions," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 72(3), pages 797-820.
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  4. Dierk Herzer, 2010. "A further examination of the export-led growth hypothesis," Ibero America Institute for Econ. Research (IAI) Discussion Papers 200, Ibero-America Institute for Economic Research.
  5. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2001. "A Panic Attack on Unit Roots and Cointegration," Economics Working Paper Archive 469, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
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  8. Peter Pedroni, 2004. "Panel Cointegration: Asymptotic and Finite Sample Properties of Pooled Time Series Tests with an Application to the PPP Hypothesis," Department of Economics Working Papers 2004-15, Department of Economics, Williams College.
  9. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
  10. Jun Zhang, 2008. "Estimation of China's provincial capital stock (1952-2004) with applications," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(2), pages 177-196.
  11. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501, September.
  12. Yanrui Wu, 2009. "China's Capital Stock Seris By Region and Sector," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 09-02, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
  13. Christian Dreger & Yanqun Zhang, 2011. "The Chinese Impact on GDP Growth and Inflation in the Industrial Countries," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1151, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
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