Evaluating Phillips curve based inflation forecasts in Europe: A note
AbstractWe run out-of-sample forecasts for the inflation rate of 15 euro-zone countries using a NAIRU Phillips curve and a naïve reference model. Comparisons show that the naïve model returns better forecasts in almost all cases. We provide evidence that the Phillips curves' goodness of fit is rather high. However, forecasting power is comparatively low. --
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), Department of Business Administration and Economics in its series Discussion Papers with number 329.
Date of creation: 2012
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Grosse Scharrnstrasse 59, 15230 Frankfurt (Oder)
Phone: +49 (0)335 5534 2387
Fax: +49 (0)335 5534 2516
Web page: http://www.wiwi.euv-frankfurt-o.de/en/index.html
More information through EDIRC
Phillips Curve; Forecasting; Europe; RMSE;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-12-22 (All new papers)
- NEP-EEC-2012-12-22 (European Economics)
- NEP-FOR-2012-12-22 (Forecasting)
- NEP-MAC-2012-12-22 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2012-12-22 (Monetary Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Matheson, Troy D., 2008.
"Phillips curve forecasting in a small open economy,"
Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 161-166, February.
- Troy Matheson, 2006. "Phillips curve forecasting in a small open economy," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2006/01, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
- Paloviita , Maritta, 2005.
"Comparing alternative Phillips curve specifications: European results with survey-based expectations,"
Research Discussion Papers
22/2005, Bank of Finland.
- Maritta Paloviita, 2008. "Comparing alternative Phillips curve specifications: European results with survey-based expectations," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(17), pages 2259-2270.
- Koop, Gary & Onorante, Luca, 2011.
"Estimating Phillips Curves in Turbulent Times using the ECB’s Survey of Professional Forecasters,"
SIRE Discussion Papers
2011-19, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
- Koop, Gary & Onorante, Luca, 2012. "Estimating Phillips curves in turbulent times using the ECB's survey of professional forecasters," Working Paper Series 1422, European Central Bank.
- Gary Koop & Luca Onorante, 2011. "Estimating Phillips Curves in Turbulent Times using the ECBs Survey of Professional Forecasters," Working Papers 1109, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
- Blinder, Alan S, 1997. "Is There a Core of Practical Macroeconomics That We Should All Believe?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 240-43, May.
- Jens R. Clausen & Bianca Clausen, 2010. "Simulating Inflation Forecasting in Real-Time: How Useful Is a Simple Phillips Curve in Germany, the UK, and the US?," IMF Working Papers 10/52, International Monetary Fund.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - German National Library of Economics).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.