Forecasting metal prices: Do forecasters herd?
AbstractWe analyze more than 20,000 forecasts of nine metal prices at four different forecast horizons. We document that forecasts are heterogeneous and report that anti-herding appears to be a source of this heterogeneity. Forecaster anti-herding reflects strategic interactions among forecasters that foster incentives to scatter forecasts around a consensus forecast. --
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), Department of Business Administration and Economics in its series Discussion Papers with number 325.
Date of creation: 2012
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Metal prices; Forecasting; Forecaster (anti-)herding;
Other versions of this item:
- G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
- C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
- L61 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - Metals and Metal Products; Cement; Glass; Ceramics
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