Housing starts in Canada, Japan, and the United States: Do forecasters herd?
AbstractRecent price trends in housing markets may reflect herding of market participants. A natural question is whether such herding, to the extent that it occurred, reflects herding in forecasts of professional forecasters. Using survey data for Canada, Japan, and the United States, we did not find evidence of forecaster herding. On the contrary, forecasters anti-herd and, thereby, tend to intentionally scatter their forecasts around the consensus forecast. The extent of anti-herding seems to vary over time. For Canada and the United States, we found that more pronounced anti-herding leads to lower forecast accuracy. --
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), Department of Business Administration and Economics in its series Discussion Papers with number 320.
Date of creation: 2012
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Housing starts; Forecasting; Herding;
Other versions of this item:
- Christian Pierdzioch & Jan-Christoph Rülke & Georg Stadtmann, 2012. "Housing Starts in Canada, Japan, and the United States: Do Forecasters Herd?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 45(3), pages 754-773, October.
- E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
- C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Longitudinal Data; Spatial Time Series
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-07-23 (All new papers)
- NEP-BEC-2012-07-23 (Business Economics)
- NEP-FOR-2012-07-23 (Forecasting)
- NEP-MAC-2012-07-23 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-URE-2012-07-23 (Urban & Real Estate Economics)
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