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Is entrepreneurial success predictable? An ex-ante analysis of the character-based approach

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  • Caliendo, Marco
  • Kritikos, Alexander S.

Abstract

This paper empirically analyzes whether the character-based approach, which is based on the personality structure and the human capital of business founders, allows prediction of entrepreneurial success. A unique data set is used consisting of 414 previously unemployed persons whose personal characteristics were screened by different methods, namely a one-day assessment center (AC) and a standardized questionnaire, before they launched their business. Results are partly unexpected: first, there is almost no correlation detween the AC data and the questionnaire. Second, the predictive power of the AC data is slightly better than that of the questionnaire, but lower than expected in theory. Interestingly, for those subgrounds where the AC data have low predictive power, the questionnaire does better. Third, when success is measured in terms of employees hired, the character-based approach is a poor predictor. --

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), Department of Business Administration and Economics in its series Discussion Papers with number 259.

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Date of creation: 2007
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:euvwdp:259

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Keywords: Entrepreneurship; Psychological Assessment; Character Based Approach; Success Prediction;

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References

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  1. repec:att:wimass:8827 is not listed on IDEAS
  2. Blanchflower, David G & Oswald, Andrew J, 1998. "What Makes an Entrepreneur?," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 16(1), pages 26-60, January.
  3. Wagner, Joachim, 2002. "Testing Lazear’s Jack-of-All-Trades View of Entrepreneurship with German Micro Data," IZA Discussion Papers 592, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  4. Evans, David S & Jovanovic, Boyan, 1989. "An Estimated Model of Entrepreneurial Choice under Liquidity Constraints," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(4), pages 808-27, August.
  5. Caliendo, Marco & Fossen, Frank M. & Kritikos, Alexander S., 2006. "Risk Attitudes of Nascent Entrepreneurs: New Evidence from an Experimentally-Validated Survey," IZA Discussion Papers 2168, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  6. Edward P. Lazear, 2004. "Balanced Skills and Entrepreneurship," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 208-211, May.
  7. Milo Bianchi & Magnus Henrekson, 2005. "Is Neoclassical Economics still Entrepreneurless?," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(3), pages 353-377, 07.
  8. Caliendo, Marco & Kritikos, Alexander S. & Wießner, Frank, 2006. "Existenzgründungsförderung in Deutschland: Zwischenergebnisse aus der Hartz-Evaluation," Discussion Papers 253, European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), Department of Business Administration and Economics.
  9. Kihlstrom, Richard E & Laffont, Jean-Jacques, 1979. "A General Equilibrium Entrepreneurial Theory of Firm Formation Based on Risk Aversion," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(4), pages 719-48, August.
  10. Holmes, Thomas J & Schmitz, James A, Jr, 1990. "A Theory of Entrepreneurship and Its Application to the Study of Business Transfers," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(2), pages 265-94, April.
  11. Hartog, Joop & Ferrer-i-Carbonell, Ada & Jonker, Nicole, 2002. "Linking Measured Risk Aversion to Individual Characteristics," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(1), pages 3-26.
  12. Brandstatter, Hermann, 1997. "Becoming an entrepreneur -- A question of personality structure?," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 18(2-3), pages 157-177, April.
  13. Bonnett, Celia & Furnham, Adrian, 1991. "Who wants to be an entrepreneur? A study of adolescents interested in a Young Enterprise scheme," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 465-478, September.
  14. Dunn, Thomas & Holtz-Eakin, Douglas, 2000. "Financial Capital, Human Capital, and the Transition to Self-Employment: Evidence from Intergenerational Links," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 18(2), pages 282-305, April.
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Cited by:
  1. Man Zhang & Patriya Tansuhaj & James McCullough, 2009. "International entrepreneurial capability: The measurement and a comparison between born global firms and traditional exporters in China," Journal of International Entrepreneurship, Springer, vol. 7(4), pages 292-322, December.
  2. Joyce Koe Hwee Nga & Gomathi Shamuganathan, 2010. "The Influence of Personality Traits and Demographic Factors on Social Entrepreneurship Start Up Intentions," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 95(2), pages 259-282, August.
  3. Martin Koning & Marie-Estelle Binet & François Facchini, 2010. "Les déterminants de la dynamique entrepreneuriale dans les régions françaises (1994-2003)," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00467900, HAL.
  4. Caliendo, Marco & Fossen, Frank & Kritikos, Alexander, 2012. "Trust, positive reciprocity, and negative reciprocity: Do these traits impact entrepreneurial dynamics?," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 394-409.
  5. Tyrowicz, Joanna, 2011. "What distinguishes entrepreneurs? Evidence on the motives for self-employment," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 112(3), pages 226-229, September.
  6. Rotger, Gabriel Pons & Gørtz, Mette & Storey, David J., 2012. "Assessing the effectiveness of guided preparation for new venture creation and performance: Theory and practice," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 506-521.
  7. Simoes, Nadia & Moreira, Sandrina B. & Crespo, Nuno, 2013. "Individual Determinants of Self-Employment Entry – What Do We Really Know?," MPRA Paper 48403, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Joanna Tyrowicz & Joanna Nestorowicz, 2010. "Cynicism Starts Young: Age and Entrepreneurship over Transition," Working Papers 2010-02, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.

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