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Wachstumsperspektiven im Strukturwandel: Neue Branchencluster entstehen

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  • Ehmer, Philipp
  • Gottschalk, Felix
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    Abstract

    Diese Arbeit thematisiert den Strukturwandel in Deutschland. Bei der klassischen Darstellung anhand der drei Wirtschaftssektoren Landwirtschaft/Industrie/Dienstleistung gehen wichtige Details verloren. Denn Tertiarisierung bedeutet nicht automatisch, dass alle Dienstleistungen auf einem aufstrebenden Ast sind und alle Industriebranchen an Bedeutung verlieren. Mittels einer multivariaten Clusteranalyse teilen wir die Wirtschaft anhand von Strukturmerkmalen von Branchen in aussagekräftige Abschnitte ein. Grundlage für die Neueinteilung sind wichtige Bestimmungsfaktoren der Wachstumstheorie und des Strukturwandels, nämlich die Kapital-, IKT-, Export-, Outsourcing-, Forschungs- und Wissensintensität der Wirtschaftszweige. Die identifizierten Branchencluster überwinden die Grenzen des Drei-Sektoren-Modells und setzen sich sowohl aus Industrie- als auch Dienstleistungsbranchen zusammen. Aufgrund vergleichbarer Strukturmerkmale folgen sie ähnlichen Wachstumstrends und dürften auf exogene Schocks in ähnlicher Weise reagieren. Wir können so Aussagen zum künftigen Strukturwandel und zu den Aussichten der einzelnen Cluster treffen. Nach unseren Ergebnissen ist der Ausblick vor allem für ein forschungs- und wissensintensives Industriecluster und ein Cluster bestehend aus den unternehmensnahen Dienstleistungen, dem Finanzwesen und den Versorgen günstig. Zukunftsbranchen stammen also nicht allein aus dem Dienstleistungssektor, daher sollte die Wachstumsdiskussion nicht einseitig geführt werden. --

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Deutsche Bank Research in its series Research Notes with number 34.

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    Date of creation: 2010
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    Handle: RePEc:zbw:dbrrns:34

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    Keywords: Strukturwandel; Wirtschaftsstruktur; Tertiarisierung;

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    1. Marcel P. Timmer & Mary O’Mahony & Bart van Ark, 2007. "EU KLEMS Growth and Productivity Accounts: An Overview," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 14, pages 71-85, Spring.
    2. Francisco J. Buera & Joseph Kaboski, 2008. "Scale and the origins of structural change," Working Paper Series WP-08-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    3. Paul Romer, 1989. "Endogenous Technological Change," NBER Working Papers 3210, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Kiminori Matsuyama, 2000. "The Rise of Mass Consumption Societies," STICERD - Development Economics Papers - From 2008 this series has been superseded by Economic Organisation and Public Policy Discussion Papers 23, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
    5. Francisco J. Buera & Joseph P. Kaboski, 2006. "The Rise of the Service Economy," 2006 Meeting Papers 496, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    6. Kuznets, Simon, 1973. "Modern Economic Growth: Findings and Reflections," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 247-58, June.
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