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Overconfidence and team-performance: An analysis of NBA-players' self-perception

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  • Geyer, Hannah
  • Wickhorst, Hanke
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    Abstract

    We analyse the effect of overconfidence in a model of team-production with effort complementarities. We show that overconfidence may not only enhance an overconfident agent's effort but also that of a rational one. Focusing the agents' payoffs we see that this increase in effort can be to the agents' benefit, regardless whether they are rational or overconfident. We take this notion to NBA-data which we have gained from the season 2009/10 and see that players who have been identified as overconfident have a significantly positive effect on their team's success. -- Wir betrachten den Effekt von Overconfidence mit Hilfe eines intuitiven Modells einer Team-Produktion mit komplementären Arbeitseinsätzen. Es zeigt sich, dass Overconfidence nicht nur den Arbeitseinsatz des betroffenen Agenten erhöht, sondern gleichzeitig den eines rationalen Teammitglieds. Hieraus resultiert ein Nutzenvorteil für die Agenten, unabhängig davon, ob sie selbst rational oder overconfident sind. Daten der NBA-Saison von 2009/10 zeigen, dass Spieler, welche als overconfident identifiziert wurden, einen signifikant positiven Effekt auf den Erfolg ihres Teams haben.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by University of Münster, Center for Interdisciplinary Economics (CIW) in its series CIW Discussion Papers with number 4/2011.

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    Date of creation: 2011
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    Handle: RePEc:zbw:ciwdps:42011

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    1. Ludwig, Sandra & Wichardt, Philip C. & Wickhorst, Hanke, 2011. "On the Positive Effects of Overcon fident Self-Perception in Teams," Discussion Papers in Economics, University of Munich, Department of Economics 12246, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
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