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Test of the German resilience

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  • Bornhorst, Fabian
  • Mody, Ashoka

Abstract

From its early post-war catch-up phase, Germany's formidable export engine has been its consistent driver of growth. But Germany has almost equally consistently run current account surpluses. Exports have powered the dynamic phases and helped emerge from stagnation. Volatile external demand, in turn, has elevated German GDP growth volatility by advanced countries' standards, keeping domestic consumption growth at surprisingly low levels. As a consequence, despite the size of its economy and important labor market reforms, Germany's ability to act as global locomotive has been limited. With increasing competition in its traditional areas of manufacturing, a more domestically-driven growth dynamic, especially in the production and delivery of services, will be good for Germany and for the global economy. Absent such an effort, German growth will remain constrained, and Germany will play only a modest role in spurring growth elsewhere. --

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Center for Financial Studies (CFS) in its series CFS Working Paper Series with number 2012/14.

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Date of creation: 2012
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:cfswop:201214

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Keywords: Economic Performance; Economic Reforms; Economic Recovery; Current Account; Productivity; Labor Market; Spillovers; Germany;

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  1. Ashoka Mody & Alina Carare, 2010. "Spillovers of Domestic Shocks," IMF Working Papers 10/78, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Boeri, Tito & Brücker, Herbert, 2011. "Short-Time Work Benefits Revisited: Some Lessons from the Great Recession," IZA Discussion Papers 5635, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  3. Hans-Werner Sinn, 2006. "The Pathological Export Boom and the Bazaar Effect - How to Solve the German Puzzle," CESifo Working Paper Series 1708, CESifo Group Munich.
  4. Anna Ivanova, 2012. "Current Account Imbalances," IMF Working Papers 12/61, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Sebastian Weber & Anna Ivanova, 2011. "Do Fiscal Spillovers Matter?," IMF Working Papers 11/211, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Ian Dew-Becker & Robert J. Gordon, 2012. "The Role of Labor-Market Changes in the Slowdown of European Productivity," Review of Economics and Institutions, Università di Perugia, vol. 3(2).
  7. Barry Eichengreen, 2006. "Introduction to The European Economy since 1945: Coordinated Capitalism and Beyond
    [The European Economy since 1945: Coordinated Capitalism and Beyond]
    ," Introductory Chapters, Princeton University Press.
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