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Risk and expected returns of private equity investments: Evidence based on market prices

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  • Jegadeesh, Narasimhan
  • Kräussl, Roman
  • Pollet, Joshua

Abstract

We estimate the risk and expected returns of private equity investments based on the market prices of exchange traded funds of funds that invest in unlisted private equity funds. Our results indicate that the market expects unlisted private equity funds to earn abnormal returns of about one to two percent. We also find that the market expects listed private equity funds to earn zero to marginally negative abnormal returns net of fees. Both listed and unlisted private equity funds have market betas close to one and positive factor loadings on the Fama-French SMB factor. Private equity fund returns are positively correlated with GDP growth and negatively correlated with the credit spread. Finally, we find that market returns of exchange traded funds of funds and listed private equity funds predict changes in self-reported book values of unlisted private equity funds. --

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Center for Financial Studies (CFS) in its series CFS Working Paper Series with number 2010/04.

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Date of creation: 2010
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:cfswop:201004

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Keywords: Private Equity; Listed Private Equity; Risk-Return Characteristics; Funds of Funds;

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References

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  1. Fama, Eugene F, 1990. " Stock Returns, Expected Returns, and Real Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1089-1108, September.
  2. Brophy, David J. & Guthner, Mark W., 1988. "Publicly traded venture capital funds: implications for institutional "fund of funds" investors," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 187-206.
  3. John H. Cochrane, 2001. "The Risk and Return of Venture Capital," NBER Working Papers 8066, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Kaplan, Steven N. & Stein, Jeremy C., 1990. "How risky is the debt in highly leveraged transactions?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 215-245, September.
  5. Oliver, Gottschalg & Ludovic, Phalippou, 2006. "The performance of private equity funds," Les Cahiers de Recherche 852, HEC Paris.
  6. Kaplan, Steve & Schoar, Antoinette, 2004. "Private Equity Performance: Returns, Persistence and Capital Flows," Working papers 4446-03, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
  7. Alexander Ljungqvist & Matthew Richardson, 2003. "The cash flow, return and risk characteristics of private equity," NBER Working Papers 9454, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
  9. Gompers, Paul & Lerner, Josh, 1999. "An analysis of compensation in the U.S. venture capital partnership," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 3-44, January.
  10. Siem Jan Koopman & Roman Kraeussl & Andre Lucas & Andre Monteiro, 2006. "Credit Cycles and Macro Fundamentals," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 06-023/2, Tinbergen Institute.
  11. Martin, John D. & Petty, J. William, 1983. "An Analysis of the Performance of Publicly Traded Venture Capital Companies," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(03), pages 401-410, September.
  12. Stéphanie Bilo & Hans Christophers & Michèl Degosciu & Heinz Zimmermann, 2005. "Risk, returns, and biases of listed private equity portfolios," Working papers 2005/01, Faculty of Business and Economics - University of Basel.
  13. Gompers, Paul & Lerner, Josh, 2000. "Money chasing deals? The impact of fund inflows on private equity valuation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 281-325, February.
  14. Quigley, John M. & Woodward, Susan E., 2003. "An Index for Venture Capital," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt15g2h7g9, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
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Cited by:
  1. Robert S. Harris & Tim Jenkinson & Steven N. Kaplan, 2012. "Private Equity Performance: What Do We Know?," NBER Working Papers 17874, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Marco Da Rin & Thomas F. Hellmann & Manju Puri, 2011. "A survey of venture capital research," NBER Working Papers 17523, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Morten Sorensen & Neng Wang & Jinqiang Yang, 2013. "Valuing Private Equity," NBER Working Papers 19612, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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