IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/cfswop/200347.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

IPOs cycle and investment in high-tech industries

Author

Listed:
  • Bouis, Romain

Abstract

This paper analyses the effects of the Initial Public Offering (IPO) market on real investment decisions in emerging industries. We first propose a model of IPO timing based on divergence of opinion among investors and short-sale constraints. Using a real option approach, we show that firms are more likely to go public when the ratio of overvaluation over profits is high, that is after stock market run-ups. Because initial returns increase with the demand from optimistic investors at the time of the offer, the model provides an explanation for the observed positive causality between average initial returns and IPO volume. Second, we discuss the possibility of real overinvestment in high-tech industries. We claim that investing in the industry gives agents an option to sell the project on the stock market at an overvalued price enabling then the financing of positive NPV projects which would not be undertaken otherwise. It is shown that the IPO market can however also lead to overinvestment in new industries. Finally, we present some econometric results supporting the idea that funds committed to the financing of high-tech industries may respond positively to optimistic stock market valuations.

Suggested Citation

  • Bouis, Romain, 2003. "IPOs cycle and investment in high-tech industries," CFS Working Paper Series 2003/47, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:cfswop:200347
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/25405/1/383914167.PDF
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. FranÁois Derrien & Kent L. Womack, 2003. "Auctions vs. Bookbuilding and the Control of Underpricing in Hot IPO Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(1), pages 31-61.
    2. Black, Bernard S. & Gilson, Ronald J., 1998. "Venture capital and the structure of capital markets: banks versus stock markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 243-277, March.
    3. Miller, Edward M, 1977. "Risk, Uncertainty, and Divergence of Opinion," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(4), pages 1151-1168, September.
    4. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    5. Alexander Ljungqvist & Vikram Nanda & Rajdeep Singh, 2006. "Hot Markets, Investor Sentiment, and IPO Pricing," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(4), pages 1667-1702, July.
    6. Stephen R. Bond & Jason G. Cummins, 2000. "The Stock Market and Investment in the New Economy: Some Tangible Facts and Intangible Fictions," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 31(1), pages 61-124.
    7. Benveniste, Lawrence M. & Busaba, Walid Y. & Wilhelm, William Jr., 2002. "Information Externalities and the Role of Underwriters in Primary Equity Markets," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 61-86, January.
    8. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    9. Randall Morck & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1990. "The Stock Market and Investment: Is the Market a Sideshow?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 21(2), pages 157-216.
    10. Claudio Michelacci & Javier Suarez, 2004. "Business Creation and the Stock Market," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 71(2), pages 459-481.
    11. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-838, May.
    12. Schultz, Paul & Zaman, Mir, 2001. "Do the individuals closest to internet firms believe they are overvalued," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 347-381, March.
    13. Robert McDonald & Daniel Siegel, 1986. "The Value of Waiting to Invest," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 101(4), pages 707-727.
    14. Jain, Bharat A & Kini, Omesh, 1994. "The Post-Issue Operating Performance of IPO Firms," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(5), pages 1699-1726, December.
    15. Daniel J. Bradley & Bradford D. Jordan & Ha-Chin Yi & Ivan C. Roten, 2001. "Venture Capital And Ipo Lockup Expiration: An Empirical Analysis," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 24(4), pages 465-493, December.
    16. Eli Ofek & Matthew Richardson, 2003. "DotCom Mania: The Rise and Fall of Internet Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(3), pages 1113-1137, June.
    17. Benveniste, Lawrence M. & Spindt, Paul A., 1989. "How investment bankers determine the offer price and allocation of new issues," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 343-361.
    18. Bradley, Daniel J & et al, 2001. "Venture Capital and IPO Lockup Expiration: An Empirical Analysis," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 24(4), pages 465-493, Winter.
    19. Paul Gompers & Josh Lerner, 2003. "Short-Term America Revisited? Boom and Bust in the Venture Capital Industry and the Impact on Innovation," NBER Chapters, in: Innovation Policy and the Economy, Volume 3, pages 1-28, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Engle, Robert F. & Yoo, Byung Sam, 1987. "Forecasting and testing in co-integrated systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 143-159, May.
    21. Paul A. Gompers & Josh Lerner, 1998. "What Drives Venture Capital Fundraising?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(1998 Micr), pages 149-204.
    22. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    23. Gompers, Paul A., 1996. "Grandstanding in the venture capital industry," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 133-156, September.
    24. Adam B. Jaffe & Josh Lerner & Scott Stern (ed.), 2003. "Innovation Policy and the Economy, Volume 3," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 3, number 026260051x, December.
    25. Lerner, Joshua, 1994. "Venture capitalists and the decision to go public," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 293-316, June.
    26. Aggarwal, Rajesh K. & Krigman, Laurie & Womack, Kent L., 2002. "Strategic IPO underpricing, information momentum, and lockup expiration selling," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 105-137, October.
    27. Marco Pagano & Fabio Panetta & and Luigi Zingales, 1998. "Why Do Companies Go Public? An Empirical Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(1), pages 27-64, February.
    28. Eli Ofek & Matthew Richardson, 2003. "DotCom Mania: The Rise and Fall of Internet Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(3), pages 1113-1138, June.
    29. Adam B. Jaffe & Josh Lerner & Scott Stern, 2003. "Innovation Policy and the Economy, Volume 3," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number jaff03-1, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:dau:papers:123456789/3411 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Jay R. Ritter & Ivo Welch, 2002. "A Review of IPO Activity, Pricing, and Allocations," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(4), pages 1795-1828, August.
    3. Fjesme, Sturla Lyngnes & Lv, Jin Roc & Shekhar, Chander, 2023. "The world cup in football and the US IPO market," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    4. Michael O'Connor Keefe & David Gallagher, 2014. "Does the effect of revealed private information on initial public offering (IPO) first trading day return differ by IPO market heat?," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 54(3), pages 921-964, September.
    5. Laura Bottazzi & Marco da Rin, 2003. "Financing Entrepreneurial Firms in Europe: Facts, Issues, and Research Agenda," CESifo Working Paper Series 958, CESifo.
    6. Beng Soon Chong & Zhenbin Liu, 2016. "CAR associated with SEO share lockups: Real or illusionary?," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 47(3), pages 513-541, October.
    7. Malcolm Baker & Richard S. Ruback & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2004. "Behavioral Corporate Finance: A Survey," NBER Working Papers 10863, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Josef Schuster, 2003. "The Cross-Section of European IPO Returns," FMG Discussion Papers dp460, Financial Markets Group.
    9. Hsu, Hung-Chia Scott, 2013. "Technology timing of IPOs and venture capital incubation," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 36-55.
    10. Schuster, Josef Anton, 2003. "The cross-section of European IPO returns," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24859, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    11. Saade, Samer, 2015. "Investor sentiment and the underperformance of technology firms initial public offerings," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 205-232.
    12. Sahil Narang & Rudra P. Pradhan, 2021. "IPO lock-up: a review and assessment," DECISION: Official Journal of the Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, Springer;Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, vol. 48(3), pages 343-369, September.
    13. Goldfarb, Brent & Kirsch, David & Miller, David A., 2007. "Was there too little entry during the Dot Com Era?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 100-144, October.
    14. Jiang, Danling & Peterson, David R. & Doran, James S., 2014. "Short-sale constraints and the idiosyncratic volatility puzzle: An event study approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 36-59.
    15. Patrick Boisselier & Dominique Dufour, 2007. "Bulle financière et introduction des sociétés Internet au Nouveau marché," Revue Finance Contrôle Stratégie, revues.org, vol. 10(1), pages 67-93, March.
    16. Shen, Zhe & Coakley, Jerry & Instefjord, Norvald, 2013. "Investor participation and underpricing in lottery-allocated Chinese IPOs," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 294-314.
    17. repec:kap:iaecre:v:13:y:2007:i:1:p:65-80 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Maria Borges, 2007. "Underpricing of Initial Public Offerings: The Case of Portugal," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 13(1), pages 65-80, February.
    19. Jeon, Jin Q. & Lee, Cheolwoo & Nasser, Tareque & Via, M. Tony, 2015. "Multiple lead underwriter IPOs and firm visibility," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 128-149.
    20. Giot, Pierre & Schwienbacher, Armin, 2007. "IPOs, trade sales and liquidations: Modelling venture capital exits using survival analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 679-702, March.
    21. Sven Fürth & Christian Rauch, 2015. "Fare Thee Well? An Analysis of Buyout Funds’ Exit Strategies," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 44(4), pages 811-849, October.
    22. Goergen, Marc & Khurshed, Arif & Renneboog, Luc, 2009. "Why are the French so different from the Germans? Underpricing of IPOs on the Euro New Markets," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 260-271, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    IPO; divergence of opinion; real option; venture capitalism; stock market and high-tech investment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D92 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Intertemporal Firm Choice, Investment, Capacity, and Financing
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage
    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:cfswop:200347. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ifkcfde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.