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IPOs cycle and investment in high-tech industries

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  • Bouis, Romain

Abstract

This paper analyses the effects of the Initial Public Offering (IPO) market on real investment decisions in emerging industries. We first propose a model of IPO timing based on divergence of opinion among investors and short-sale constraints. Using a real option approach, we show that firms are more likely to go public when the ratio of overvaluation over profits is high, that is after stock market run-ups. Because initial returns increase with the demand from optimistic investors at the time of the offer, the model provides an explanation for the observed positive causality between average initial returns and IPO volume. Second, we discuss the possibility of real overinvestment in high-tech industries. We claim that investing in the industry gives agents an option to sell the project on the stock market at an overvalued price enabling then the financing of positive NPV projects which would not be undertaken otherwise. It is shown that the IPO market can however also lead to overinvestment in new industries. Finally, we present some econometric results supporting the idea that funds committed to the financing of high-tech industries may respond positively to optimistic stock market valuations. --

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Center for Financial Studies (CFS) in its series CFS Working Paper Series with number 2003/47.

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Date of creation: 2003
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:cfswop:200347

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Keywords: IPO; divergence of opinion; real option; venture capitalism; stock market and high-tech investment;

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References

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  2. Jain, Bharat A & Kini, Omesh, 1994. " The Post-Issue Operating Performance of IPO Firms," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(5), pages 1699-1726, December.
  3. Schultz, Paul & Zaman, Mir, 2001. "Do the individuals closest to internet firms believe they are overvalued," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 347-381, March.
  4. Huisman, K.J.M., 2000. "Technology Investment: A Game Theoretic Real Options Approach," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-84087, Tilburg University.
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  15. Bradley, Daniel J & et al, 2001. "Venture Capital and IPO Lockup Expiration: An Empirical Analysis," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association & Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 24(4), pages 465-93, Winter.
  16. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  17. Gompers, Paul A., 1996. "Grandstanding in the venture capital industry," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 133-156, September.
  18. Lerner, Joshua, 1994. "Venture capitalists and the decision to go public," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 293-316, June.
  19. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-38, May.
  20. FranÁois Derrien & Kent L. Womack, 2003. "Auctions vs. Bookbuilding and the Control of Underpricing in Hot IPO Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(1), pages 31-61.
  21. Aggarwal, Rajesh K. & Krigman, Laurie & Womack, Kent L., 2002. "Strategic IPO underpricing, information momentum, and lockup expiration selling," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 105-137, October.
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