Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Market response to investor sentiment

Contents:

Author Info

  • Hengelbrock, Jördis
  • Theissen, Erik
  • Westheide, Christian

Abstract

Recent empirical research suggests that measures of investor sentiment have predictive power for future stock returns over the intermediate and long term. Given the widespread publication of sentiment indicators, smart investors should trade on the information conveyed by such indicators and thus trigger an immediate market response to their publication. The present paper is the first to empirically analyze whether an immediate response can be identified from the data. We use survey-based sentiment indicators from two countries (Germany and the US). Consistent with previous research we find there is predictability at intermediate time horizons. For the US, however, the predictability disappears after 1994. Using event study methodology we find that the publication of sentiment indicators affects market returns. The sign of the immediate response is the same as that of the predictability over the intermediate term. This finding is consistent with the idea that sentiment is related to mispricing, but is inconsistent with the idea that the sentiment indicator provides information about future expected returns. --

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/44962/1/654198551.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR) in its series CFR Working Papers with number 11-01.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:zbw:cfrwps:1101

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Albertus Magnus Platz, 50923 Köln
Phone: 0221 / 470 5607
Fax: 0221 / 470 5179
Email:
Web page: http://cfr-cologne.de/english/version06/html/home.php
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Investor Sentiment; Event Study; Return Predictability;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2004. "Investor Sentiment and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 10449, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Dennis, Patrick & Mayhew, Stewart, 2002. "Risk-Neutral Skewness: Evidence from Stock Options," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 37(03), pages 471-493, September.
  3. Stephen Brown & William Goetzmann & Takato Hiraki & Noriyoshi Shiraishi & Masahiro Watanabe, 2002. "Investor Sentiment in Japanese and U.S. Daily Mutual Fund Flows," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm274, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Apr 2008.
  4. Charles Lee & Andrei Shleifer & Richard Thaler, 1990. "Investor Sentiment and the Closed-End Fund Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 3465, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Maria W. Otoo, 1999. "Consumer sentiment and the stock market," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-60, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  6. Elton, Edwin J & Gruber, Martin J & Busse, Jeffrey A, 1998. "Do Investors Care about Sentiment?," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 71(4), pages 477-500, October.
  7. Stambaugh, Robert F., 1999. "Predictive regressions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 375-421, December.
  8. J. Bradford De Long & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, . "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," J. Bradford De Long's Working Papers _124, University of California at Berkeley, Economics Department.
  9. Alok Kumar & Charles M.C. Lee, 2006. "Retail Investor Sentiment and Return Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(5), pages 2451-2486, October.
  10. Neal, Robert & Wheatley, Simon M., 1998. "Do Measures of Investor Sentiment Predict Returns?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 33(04), pages 523-547, December.
  11. Schmeling, Maik, 2006. "Institutional and Individual Sentiment: Smart Money and Noise Trader Risk," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-337, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
  12. Brown, Gregory W. & Cliff, Michael T., 2004. "Investor sentiment and the near-term stock market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 1-27, January.
  13. Hansen, Lars Peter & Hodrick, Robert J, 1980. "Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(5), pages 829-53, October.
  14. Gregory W. Brown & Michael T. Cliff, 2005. "Investor Sentiment and Asset Valuation," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(2), pages 405-440, March.
  15. Rahul Verma & Hasan Baklaci & Gokce Soydemir, 2008. "The impact of rational and irrational sentiments of individual and institutional investors on DJIA and S&P500 index returns," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(16), pages 1303-1317.
  16. Edwin J. Elton & Martin J. Gruber & Jeffrey A. Busse, 1998. "Do Investors Care About Sentiment?," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 98-028, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Thomas Lux, 2011. "Sentiment dynamics and stock returns: the case of the German stock market," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 663-679, December.
  2. Finter, Philipp & Niessen-Ruenzi, Alexandra & Ruenzi, Stefan, 2010. "The impact of investor sentiment on the German stock market," CFR Working Papers 10-03, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:cfrwps:1101. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - German National Library of Economics).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.