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The impact of investor sentiment on the German stock market

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  • Finter, Philipp
  • Niessen-Ruenzi, Alexandra
  • Ruenzi, Stefan

Abstract

This paper investigates whether investor sentiment can explain stock returns on the German stock market. Based on a principal component analysis, we construct a sentiment indicator that condenses information of several well-known sentiment proxies. We show that this indicator explains the return spread between sentiment stocks and stocks that are not sensitive to sentiment fluctuations. Specifically, stocks that are difficult to arbitrage and hard to value are sensitive to the indicator. However, we do not find much predictive power of sentiment for future stock returns. This is consistent with sentiment being of minor importance on the German stock market that is characterized by a low fraction of retail investors. --

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR) in its series CFR Working Papers with number 10-03.

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Date of creation: 2010
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:cfrwps:1003

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Keywords: Investor Sentiment; Stock Returns; German Stock Market;

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References

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  1. Frazzini, Andrea & Lamont, Owen A., 2008. "Dumb money: Mutual fund flows and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 299-322, May.
  2. Schmeling, Maik, 2007. "Institutional and individual sentiment: Smart money and noise trader risk?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 127-145.
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  4. Oehler, Andreas & Rummer, Marco & Smith, Peter N., 2004. "IPO Pricing and the Relative Importance of Investor Sentiment: Evidence from Germany," Discussion Papers 26, University of Bamberg, Chair of Finance.
  5. Jeffrey Wurgler & Ekaterina Zhuravskaya, 2000. "Does Arbitrage Flatten Demand Curves for Stocks?," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm152, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Nov 2001.
  6. Charles Lee & Andrei Shleifer & Richard Thaler, 1990. "Investor Sentiment and the Closed-End Fund Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 3465, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Francesca Cornelli & David Goldreich & Alexander Ljungqvist, 2006. "Investor Sentiment and Pre-IPO Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(3), pages 1187-1216, 06.
  8. Charles M.C. Lee & Bhaskaran Swaminathan, 2000. "Price Momentum and Trading Volume," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(5), pages 2017-2069, October.
  9. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler & Yu Yuan, 2009. "Global, local, and contagious investor sentiment," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 37, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  10. Hengelbrock, Jördis & Theissen, Erik & Westheide, Christian, 2011. "Market response to investor sentiment," CFS Working Paper Series 2011/02, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  11. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 1999. "The Equity Share in New Issues and Aggregate Stock Returns," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm124, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Jan 2009.
  12. Dorn, Daniel, 2009. "Does Sentiment Drive the Retail Demand for IPOs?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(01), pages 85-108, February.
  13. Alok Kumar & Charles M.C. Lee, 2006. "Retail Investor Sentiment and Return Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(5), pages 2451-2486, October.
  14. Jason Bram & Sydney Ludvigson, 1998. "Does consumer confidence forecast household expenditure? a sentiment index horse race," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jun, pages 59-78.
  15. Lee, Charles M. C. & Radhakrishna, Balkrishna, 2000. "Inferring investor behavior: Evidence from TORQ data," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 83-111, May.
  16. Faccio, Mara & Lang, Larry H. P., 2002. "The ultimate ownership of Western European corporations," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(3), pages 365-395, September.
  17. Dennis, Patrick & Mayhew, Stewart, 2002. "Risk-Neutral Skewness: Evidence from Stock Options," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 37(03), pages 471-493, September.
  18. John A. Doukas & Nikolaos T. Milonas, 2004. "Investor Sentiment and the Closed-end Fund Puzzle: Out-of-sample Evidence," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 10(2), pages 235-266.
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Cited by:
  1. Singer, Nico & Dreher, Frank & Laser, Saskia, 2012. "Published stock recommendations as institutional investor sentiment in the near-term stock market," Thuenen-Series of Applied Economic Theory 121, University of Rostock, Institute of Economics.
  2. Bormann, Sven-Kristjan, 2013. "Sentiment indices on financial markets: What do they measure?," Economics Discussion Papers 2013-58, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.

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