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Risikofaktoren und Multifaktormodelle für den Deutschen Aktienmarkt (Risk Factors and Multi-Factor Models for the German Stock Market)

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Author Info

  • Hanauer, Matthias
  • Kaserer, Christoph
  • Rapp, Marc Steffen

Abstract

Der deutsche Aktienmarkt sah sich in den letzten 15 Jahren substantiellen Veränderungen gegenüber, welche unter anderem in eine zunehmende Internationalisierung und deutlich erhöhten Streubesitz mündeten. In der vorliegenden Arbeit untersuchen wir, inwieweit dies die aus klassischen Multifaktormodellen bekannten Risikofaktoren beeinflusste. Basierend auf den Renditen derCDAX-Unternehmen von Juli 1996 bis Juni 2011 dokumentieren wir vier wesentliche Ergebnisse. Erstens finden wir eine insignifikant (positive) Marktrisikoprämie, eine signifikant negative Größenprämie (Size Premium), eine signifikant positive Substanzprämie (Value Premium) und eine signifikant positive Momentumprämie (Momentum Premium). Zweitens zeigen sich alle vier Faktoren untereinander nur schwach bzw. negativ korreliert und teilweise mit internationalen Gegenstücken nur schwach korreliert. Drittens zeigt sich, dass Renditen von Aktienportfolios, sortiert nach Marktkapitalisierung und Buch-Marktwert-Verhältnis, durch ein Dreifaktorenmodell nach Fama French (1993) substantiell besser erklärt werden, als durch ein Einfaktormodell in Anlehnung an das klassische Capital Asset Pricing Model. Der zusätzliche Erklärungsbeitrag des Momentumfaktors in Anlehnung an Carhart (1997) ist hingegen marginal. Letztendlich argumentieren wir daher vor dem Hintergrund der bekannten Literatur und unserer Ergebnisse für eine länderspezifische Erweiterung des Capital Asset Pricing Models. -- For the last 15 years, the German stock market has been facing substantial changes that resulted in increasing internationalization and a higher free float. In this paper, we investigate to what extent these changes influenced the well-known risk factors of standard multi-factor models. Based on the returns of all stocks listed in the German composite index CDAX (all domestic companies of the Prime and General Standard of the Frankfurt Stock Exchange) from July 1996 to June 2011, we document four major results: First, we find an insignificant (positive) market risk premium, a significant negative size premium, a significant positive value premium and a significant positive momentum premium. Second, the correlation within all four risk factors is only weakly positive or even negative and with international counterparts only weak. Third, we find that returns of portfolios, sorted by market capitalization and book-to-market equity, are captured substantially better by multi-factor models by Fama/French (1993) or Carhart (1997) than by the one-factor model based on the standard Capital Asset Pricing Model. Finally, after comparing our findings for the last 15 years with the existing literature, we conclude for a country specific extension of the Capital Asset Pricing Model.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Center for Entrepreneurial and Financial Studies (CEFS), Technische Universität München in its series CEFS Working Paper Series with number 2011-01.

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Date of creation: 2011
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:cefswp:20111

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Related research

Keywords: CAPM; multi-factor models; asset pricing; asset pricing anomalies; anomalies; Fama French; Carhart; risk factors; value; size; momentum; Germany;

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References

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  1. K. Geert Rouwenhorst, 1998. "International Momentum Strategies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(1), pages 267-284, 02.
  2. Ross, Stephen A., 1976. "The arbitrage theory of capital asset pricing," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 341-360, December.
  3. Andreas Schrimpf & Michael Schröder & Richard Stehle, 2007. "Cross-sectional Tests of Conditional Asset Pricing Models: Evidence from the German Stock Market," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 13(5), pages 880-907.
  4. van Dijk, Mathijs A., 2011. "Is size dead? A review of the size effect in equity returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 3263-3274.
  5. Manuel Ammann & Michael Steiner, 2008. "Risk Factors for the Swiss Stock Market," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 144(I), pages 1-35, March.
  6. Peter S. Schmidt & Andreas Schrimpf & Urs von Arx & Alexander F. Wagner & Andreas Ziegler, 2011. "On the Construction of Common Size, Value and Momentum Factors in International Stock Markets: A Guide with Applications," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 11/141, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
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