Households' disagreement on inflation expectations and socioeconomic media exposure in Germany
AbstractInflation expectations are often found to depend on socioeconomic and demographic characteristics of households, such as age, income and education, however, the reasons for this systematic heterogeneity are not yet fully understood. Since accounting for these expectation differentials could help improve the communication strategies of central banks, we test the impact of three sources of the demographic dependence of inflation expectations using data for Germany. Overall, our findings suggest that household-specific inflation rates and group-specific news consumption accounts for the higher expectation gaps of younger and older households, households with lower income and unemployed survey respondents, while households' inflation perceptions only play a minor role. --
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre in its series Discussion Papers with number 27/2013.
Date of creation: 2013
Date of revision:
Inflation Expectations and Perceptions; Demographic Heterogeneity; News Media Effects; Household-Specific Inflation Rates; System Estimation;
Other versions of this item:
- Menz, Jan-Oliver & Poppitz, Philipp, 2013. "Household`s Disagreement on Inflation Expectations and Socioeconomic Media Exposure in Germany," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 80006, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
- E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Sims, Christopher A., 2003. "Implications of rational inattention," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 665-690, April.
- Annamaria Lusardi & Olivia S. Mitchell, 2008.
"Planning and Financial Literacy: How Do Women Fare?,"
CeRP Working Papers
72, Center for Research on Pensions and Welfare Policies, Turin (Italy).
- Annamaria Lusardi & Olivia S. Mitchell, 2008. "Planning and Financial Literacy: How Do Women Fare?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(2), pages 413-17, May.
- Lusardi, Annamaria & Mitchell, Olivia S., 2008. "Planning and financial literacy: How do women fare?," CFS Working Paper Series 2008/03, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
- Annamaria Lusardi & Olivia S. Mitchell, 2008. "Planning and Financial Literacy: How Do Women Fare?," NBER Working Papers 13750, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Matthew Gentzkow & Jesse M. Shapiro, 2010.
"What Drives Media Slant? Evidence From U.S. Daily Newspapers,"
Econometric Society, vol. 78(1), pages 35-71, 01.
- Matthew Gentzkow & Jesse M. Shapiro, 2006. "What Drives Media Slant? Evidence from U.S. Daily Newspapers," NBER Working Papers 12707, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz & Kiraz, Fatma Burcu, 2006.
"Do actions speak louder than words? Household expectations of inflation based on micro consumption data,"
Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies
2006,26, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Atsushi Inoue & Lutz Kilian & Fatma Burcu Kiraz, 2009. "Do Actions Speak Louder Than Words? Household Expectations of Inflation Based on Micro Consumption Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(7), pages 1331-1363, October.
- Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz & Kiraz, Fatma Burcu, 2006. "Do Actions Speak Louder than Words? Household Expectations of Inflation Based on Micro Consumption Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 5790, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Bart Hobijn & David Lagakos, 2005.
"Inflation Inequality In The United States,"
Review of Income and Wealth,
International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 51(4), pages 581-606, December.
- Sendhil Mullainathan & Andrei Shleifer, 2005.
"The Market for News,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 95(4), pages 1031-1053, September.
- Langthaler, Johannes & Valderrama, Maria Teresa & Gnan, Ernest, 2011. "Heterogeneity in Euro Area Consumers’ Inflation Expectations: Some Stylized Facts and Implications," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 43â66.
- Michael J. Lamla & Sarah M. Lein, 2008. "The Role of Media for Consumers' Inflation Expectation Formation," KOF Working papers 08-201, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
- Christopher D Carroll, 2002.
"Macroeconomic Expectations of Households and Professional Forecasters,"
Economics Working Paper Archive
477, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
- Christopher D. Carroll, 2003. "Macroeconomic Expectations Of Households And Professional Forecasters," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 118(1), pages 269-298, February.
- Christopher D. Carroll, 2001.
"The Epidemiology of Macroeconomic Expectations,"
NBER Working Papers
8695, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Pfajfar, D. & Santoro, E., 2012.
"News on Inflation and the Epidemiology of Inflation Expectations,"
2012-048, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Damjan Pfajfar & Emiliano Santoro, 2013. "News on Inflation and the Epidemiology of Inflation Expectations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(6), pages 1045-1067, 09.
- Michael J. Lamla & Thomas Maag, 2012. "The Role of Media for Inflation Forecast Disagreement of Households and Professional Forecasters," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(7), pages 1325-1350, October.
- Giampiero M. Gallo & Clive W.J. Granger & Yongil Jeon, 2002.
"Copycats and Common Swings: The Impact of the Use of Forecasts in Information Sets,"
IMF Staff Papers,
Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 49(1), pages 2.
- Giampiero M. Gallo & Clive W.J. Granger & Yongil Jeon, 2001. "Copycats and Common Swings: the Impact of the Use of Forecasts in Information Sets," Econometrics Working Papers Archive wp2001_01, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti".
- Fishe, Raymond P H & Idson, Todd L, 1990. "Information-Induced Heteroscedasticity in Price Expectations Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(2), pages 304-12, May.
- Bomberger, William A, 1996. "Disagreement as a Measure of Uncertainty," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(3), pages 381-92, August.
- Ranyard, Rob & Missier, Fabio Del & Bonini, Nicolao & Duxbury, Darren & Summers, Barbara, 2008. "Perceptions and expectations of price changes and inflation: A review and conceptual framework," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 378-400, August.
- Souleles, Nicholas S, 2004. "Expectations, Heterogeneous Forecast Errors, and Consumption: Micro Evidence from the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Surveys," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(1), pages 39-72, February.
- Carlos Capistrán & Allan Timmermann, 2006.
"Disagreement and Biases in Inflation Expectations,"
2006-07, Banco de México.
- Carlos Capistrán & Allan Timmermann, 2008. "Disagreement and Biases in Inflation Expectations," CREATES Research Papers 2008-56, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
- Carlos CapistrÃ¡n & Allan Timmermann, 2006. "Disagreement and Biases in Inflation Expectations," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 3, Society for Computational Economics.
- Mary A. Burke & Michael Manz, 2011. "Economic literacy and inflation expectations: evidence from a laboratory experiment," Public Policy Discussion Paper 11-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
- Pfajfar, D. & Santoro, E., 2008. "Asymmetries in Inflation Expectation Formation Across Demographic Groups," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0824, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2006.
"Sticky Information in General Equilibrium,"
NBER Working Papers
12605, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Arto Luoma & Jani Luoto, 2009. "Modelling the general public's inflation expectations using the Michigan survey data," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(10), pages 1311-1320.
- Roberta Colavecchio & Ulrich Fritsche & Michael Graff, 2011. "Inflation Inequality in Europe," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 201102, Hamburg University, Department Wirtschaft und Politik.
- Lena Dräger & Ulrich Fritsche, 2013. "Don't Worry, Be Right! Survey Wording Effects on In flation Perceptions and Expectations," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 201308, Hamburg University, Department Wirtschaft und Politik.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - German National Library of Economics).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.