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Credit risk connectivity in the financial industry and stabilization effects of government bailouts

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  • Bosma, Jakob
  • Koetter, Michael
  • Wedow, Michael

Abstract

We identify the connections between financial institutions from different sectors of the financial industry based on joint extreme movements in credit default swap (CDS) spreads. First, we estimate pairwise co-crash probabilities (CCP) to identify significant connections among 193 international financial institutions and explain CCPs with shared country and/or sectoral origin indicators. Second, we use network centrality measures to identify systemically important financial institutions. Third, we test if bailouts stabilized network neighbors and thus this financial system. Financial firms from the same sector and country are most likely significantly connected. Inter-sector and intra-sector connectivity across countries also increase the likelihood of significant links. Central network indicators based on significant CCPs identify many institutions that failed during the 2007/2008 crisis. Excess equity returns in response to bank bailouts are overall negative and significantly lower for connected banks. --

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre in its series Discussion Papers with number 16/2012.

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Date of creation: 2012
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdps:162012

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Related research

Keywords: Extreme Value Theory; CDS Spreads; Systemic Institutions; Network Stability;

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Cited by:
  1. Valerie De Bruyckere & Maria Gerhardt & Glenn Schepens & Rudi Vander Vennet, 2012. "Bank/sovereign risk spillovers in the European debt crisis," Working Paper Research 232, National Bank of Belgium.
  2. Trapp, Monika & Wewel, Claudio, 2013. "Transatlantic systemic risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4241-4255.
  3. Trapp, Monika & Wewel, Claudio, 2012. "Transatlantic systemic risk," CFR Working Papers 12-10, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
  4. Trapp, Monika & Wewel, Claudio, 2013. "Transatlantic systemic risk," CFR Working Papers 12-10 [rev.], University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
  5. De Bruyckere, Valerie & Gerhardt, Maria & Schepens, Glenn & Vander Vennet, Rudi, 2013. "Bank/sovereign risk spillovers in the European debt crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 4793-4809.

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