CDS spreads and systemic risk: A spatial econometric approach
AbstractThis study applies a novel way of measuring, quantifying and modelling the systemic risk within the financial system. The magnitude of risk spill over effects is gauged by introducing a specific weighting scheme. This approach originally stems from spatial econometrics. The methodology allows for a decomposition of the credit spread into a systemic, systematic and idiosyncratic risk premium. We identify considerable risk spill overs due to the interconnectedness of the financial institutes in the sample. In stress tests, up to one fifth of the CDS spread changes are owing to financial contagion. These results also give an alternative explanation for the nonlinear relationship between a debtor's theoretical probability of default and the observed credit spreads - known as the credit spread puzzle. --
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre in its series Discussion Papers with number 01/2013.
Date of creation: 2013
Date of revision:
systemic risk; financial contagion; spatial econometrics; CDS spreads; government policy and regulation;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
- G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
- G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2013-02-16 (All new papers)
- NEP-BAN-2013-02-16 (Banking)
- NEP-ECM-2013-02-16 (Econometrics)
- NEP-FMK-2013-02-16 (Financial Markets)
- NEP-GEO-2013-02-16 (Economic Geography)
- NEP-RMG-2013-02-16 (Risk Management)
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