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CDS spreads and systemic risk: A spatial econometric approach

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  • Keiler, Sebastian
  • Eder, Armin

Abstract

This study applies a novel way of measuring, quantifying and modelling the systemic risk within the financial system. The magnitude of risk spill over effects is gauged by introducing a specific weighting scheme. This approach originally stems from spatial econometrics. The methodology allows for a decomposition of the credit spread into a systemic, systematic and idiosyncratic risk premium. We identify considerable risk spill overs due to the interconnectedness of the financial institutes in the sample. In stress tests, up to one fifth of the CDS spread changes are owing to financial contagion. These results also give an alternative explanation for the nonlinear relationship between a debtor's theoretical probability of default and the observed credit spreads - known as the credit spread puzzle.

Suggested Citation

  • Keiler, Sebastian & Eder, Armin, 2013. "CDS spreads and systemic risk: A spatial econometric approach," Discussion Papers 01/2013, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdps:012013
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    Cited by:

    1. Carlos Castro & Juan S. Ordoñez & Sergio Preciado, 2016. "Network externalities across financial institutions," Documentos de Trabajo 14287, Universidad del Rosario.
    2. Leopoldo Catania & Anna Gloria Billé, 2017. "Dynamic spatial autoregressive models with autoregressive and heteroskedastic disturbances," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(6), pages 1178-1196, September.
    3. Rosella Giacometti & Gabriele Torri & Kamonchai Rujirarangsan & Michela Cameletti, 2023. "Spatial Multivariate GARCH Models and Financial Spillovers," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 16(9), pages 1-23, September.
    4. Umberto Muratori, 2014. "Contagion in the Euro Area Sovereign Bond Market," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 4(1), pages 1-17, December.
    5. Blasques, Francisco & Koopman, Siem Jan & Lucas, Andre & Schaumburg, Julia, 2016. "Spillover dynamics for systemic risk measurement using spatial financial time series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 195(2), pages 211-223.
    6. Billio, Monica & Caporin, Massimiliano & Frattarolo, Lorenzo & Pelizzon, Loriana, 2023. "Networks in risk spillovers: A multivariate GARCH perspective," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 1-29.
    7. Francesco Caloia & Andrea Cipollini & Silvia Muzzioli, 2018. "On the financial connectedness of the commodity market: a replication of the Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) study," Department of Economics 0131, University of Modena and Reggio E., Faculty of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    8. Billio, Monica & Caporin, Massimiliano & Panzica, Roberto & Pelizzon, Loriana, 2023. "The impact of network connectivity on factor exposures, asset pricing, and portfolio diversification," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 196-223.
    9. Pagano, Michael S. & Sedunov, John, 2016. "A comprehensive approach to measuring the relation between systemic risk exposure and sovereign debt," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 62-78.
    10. Fernandes, Guilherme Barreto & Artes , Rinaldo, 2013. "Spatial correlation in credit risk and its improvement in credit scoring," Insper Working Papers wpe_321, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
    11. Sedunov, John, 2021. "Federal reserve intervention and systemic risk during financial crises," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    12. Hüttner, Amelie & Scherer, Matthias & Gräler, Benedikt, 2020. "Geostatistical modeling of dependent credit spreads: Estimation of large covariance matrices and imputation of missing data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    13. Matthias Pelster & Johannes Vilsmeier, 2018. "The determinants of CDS spreads: evidence from the model space," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 63-118, April.
    14. Pelster, Matthias & Vilsmeier, Johannes, 2016. "The determinants of CDS spreads: Evidence from the model space," Discussion Papers 43/2016, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    15. Francesco Giuseppe Caloia & Andrea Cipollini & Silvia Muzzioli, 2016. "A note on normalization schemes:The case of generalized forecast error variance decompositions," Department of Economics 0092, University of Modena and Reggio E., Faculty of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    16. Marc Peters & Hugues Pirotte, 2014. "Unveiling Sovereign Effects in European Banks CDS Spreads Variations," Working Papers CEB 14-018, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    systemic risk; financial contagion; spatial econometrics; CDS spreads; government policy and regulation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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