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How effective are automatic stabilisers? Theory and empirical results for Germany and other OECD countries

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  • Tödter, Karl-Heinz
  • Scharnagl, Michael
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    Abstract

    Cyclically induced changes in taxes and government expenditures which tend to stabilise aggregate output are called automatic stabilisers. Using a small macro model, this paper reviews alternative methods of measuring the smoothing power of automatic stabilisers and discusses their relationship to the Ricardian Equivalence Theorem. Based on simulation exercises with the macroeconometric multi-country model of the Deutsche Bundesbank, the empirical part of the paper presents estimates of the smoothing power of automatic stabilisers for Germany and some other OECD countries. The results for Germany suggest that in the first year 15 to 20 per cent of an exogenous demand shock are absorbed by the automatic stabilisers. Similar results are obtained for France, Italy, the Netherlands, UK, Canada and the US. --

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    File URL: http://econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/19488/1/200421dkp.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre in its series Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies with number 2004,21.

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    Date of creation: 2004
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    Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdp1:2166

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    Related research

    Keywords: Fiscal policy; automatic stabilisers; smoothing power; compensation method;

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    References

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    1. Hamerle, Alfred & Liebig, Thilo & Scheule, Harald, 2004. "Forecasting Credit Portfolio Risk," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2004,01, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
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    Cited by:
    1. David Prušvic, 2010. "European Fiscal Policy Rules: First 15 Years," Politická ekonomie, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2010(1), pages 51-69.
    2. Jerome Creel & Francesco Saraceno, 2008. "Automatic Stabilisation, Discretionary Policy and the Stability Pact," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2008-15, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    3. Baum, Anja & Koester, Gerrit B., 2011. "The impact of fiscal policy on economic activity over the business cycle - evidence from a threshold VAR analysis," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2011,03, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
    4. Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der Gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung (ed.), 2007. "Staatsverschuldung wirksam begrenzen. Expertise im Auftrag des Bundesministers für Wirtschaft und Technologie," Occasional Reports / Expertisen, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, number 75368.
    5. Koch, Daniel, 2011. "Wirksame Begrenzung von Staatsverschuldung auf europäischer Ebene," Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Beiträge 114, Julius-Maximilians-Universität Würzburg, Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbes. Wirtschaftsordnung und Sozialpolitik.
    6. Bode, Oliver & Gerke, Rafael & Schellhorn, Hannes, 2006. "Die Wirkung fiskalischer Schocks auf das Bruttoinlandsprodukt," Working Papers 01/2006, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung.

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