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How useful is the carry-over effect for short-term economic forecasting?

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  • Tödter, Karl-Heinz
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    Abstract

    The carry-over effect is the advance contribution of the old year to growth in the new year. Among practitioners the informative content of the carry-over effect for short-term forecasting is undisputed and is used routinely in economic forecasting. In this paper, the carry-over effect is analysed 'statistically' and it is shown how it reduces the uncertainty of short-term economic forecasts. This is followed by an empirical analysis of the carry-over effect using simple forecast models as well as Bundesbank and Consensus projections. --

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre in its series Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies with number 2010,21.

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    Date of creation: 2010
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    Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdp1:201021

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    Related research

    Keywords: forecast uncertainty; growth rates; carry-over effect; variance contribution; Chebyshev density;

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