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Interactions between the real economy and the stock market

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  • Westerhoff, Frank

Abstract

We develop a simple behavioral macro model to study interactions between the real economy and the stock market. The real economy is represented by a Keynesian goods market approach while the setup for the stock market includes heterogeneous speculators. Using a mixture of analytical and numerical tools we find, for instance, that speculators may create endogenous boom-bust dynamics in the stock market which, by spilling over into the real economy, can cause lasting fluctuations in economic activity. However, fluctuations in economic activity may, by shaping the firms' fundamental values, also have an impact on the dynamics of the stock market. --

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group in its series BERG Working Paper Series with number 84.

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Date of creation: 2011
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:bamber:84

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Postal: D-96045 Bamberg
Phone: 0951/8632687
Fax: 0951/8632550
Web page: http://www.uni-bamberg.de/vwl/forschung/berg/
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Keywords: goods market; stock market; heterogeneous speculators; stability analysis; complex dynamics;

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  1. Lengnick, Matthias & Wohltmann, Hans-Werner, 2011. "Agent-based financial markets and New Keynesian macroeconomics: A synthesis," Economics Working Papers 2011,09, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
  2. Asada, Toichiro & Chiarella, Carl & Flaschel, Peter & Mouakil, Tarik & Proaño, Christian R., 2010. "Stabilizing an unstable economy: On the choice of proper policy measures," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 4(21), pages 1-43.
  3. Menkhoff, Lukas & Taylor, Mark P., 2006. "The Obstinate Passion of Foreign Exchange Professionals: Technical Analysis," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-352, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
  4. Lux, Thomas, 1995. "Herd Behaviour, Bubbles and Crashes," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(431), pages 881-96, July.
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  6. Charpe, Matthieu & Flaschel, Peter & Hartmann, Florian & Proaño, Christian, 2011. "Stabilizing an unstable economy: Fiscal and monetary policy, stocks, and the term structure of interest rates," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 2129-2136, September.
  7. Cars Hommes & Florian Wagener, 2008. "Complex Evolutionary Systems in Behavioral Finance," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 08-054/1, Tinbergen Institute.
  8. Peter Boswijk & Cars H. Hommes & Sebastiano Manzan, 2005. "Behavioral Heterogeneity in Stock Prices," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-052/1, Tinbergen Institute.
  9. Carl Chiarella & Roberto Dieci & Xue-Zhong He, 2008. "Heterogeneity, Market Mechanisms, and Asset Price Dynamics," Research Paper Series 231, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
  10. Scheffknecht, Lukas & Geiger, Felix, 2011. "A behavioral macroeconomic model with endogenous boom-bust cycles and leverage dynamcis," FZID Discussion Papers 37-2011, University of Hohenheim, Center for Research on Innovation and Services (FZID).
  11. Mikael Bask, 2012. "Asset Price Misalignments And Monetary Policy," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(3), pages 221-241, 07.
  12. Medio,Alfredo & Lines,Marji, 2001. "Nonlinear Dynamics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521551861, October.
  13. Hommes, C.H., 2010. "The Heterogeneous Expectations Hypothesis: Some Evidence from the Lab," CeNDEF Working Papers 10-06, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
  14. Dieci, Roberto & Westerhoff, Frank, 2010. "Heterogeneous speculators, endogenous fluctuations and interacting markets: A model of stock prices and exchange rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 743-764, April.
  15. Franke, Reiner & Westerhoff, Frank, 2012. "Structural stochastic volatility in asset pricing dynamics: Estimation and model contest," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 1193-1211.
  16. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 8973.
  17. Hommes, Cars & Huang, Hai & Wang, Duo, 2005. "A robust rational route to randomness in a simple asset pricing model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1043-1072, June.
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