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Reducing sequence risk using trend following investment strategies and the CAPE

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Listed:
  • Andrew Clare
  • James Seaton
  • Peter N. Smith
  • Stephen Thomas

Abstract

Sequence risk is a poorly understood, but crucial aspect of the risk faced by many investors. Using US equity data from 1872-2015 we apply the concept of Perfect Withdrawal Rates to show how this risk can be significantly reduced by applying simple, trend following investment strategies. We also show that knowing the CAPE ratio at the beginning of a decumulation period is useful for predicting and enhancing the sustainable withdrawal rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew Clare & James Seaton & Peter N. Smith & Stephen Thomas, 2016. "Reducing sequence risk using trend following investment strategies and the CAPE," Discussion Papers 16/11, Department of Economics, University of York.
    • Handle: RePEc:yor:yorken:16/11
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Clare, Andrew & Seaton, James & Smith, Peter N. & Thomas, Stephen, 2016. "The trend is our friend: Risk parity, momentum and trend following in global asset allocation," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(C), pages 63-80.
    2. Gerrard, Russell & Haberman, Steven & Vigna, Elena, 2004. "Optimal investment choices post-retirement in a defined contribution pension scheme," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 321-342, October.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sequence Risk; Perfect Withdrawal Rate; Decumulation; Trend-Following; CAPE;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies

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