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The Banking Sector, Government Bonds and Financial Intermediation: The Case of Emerging Market Countries

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  • F. Gulcin Ozkan
  • Ahmet Kipici
  • Mustafa Ismihan

Abstract

This paper develops an analytical framework to explore how financial sector characteristics shape domestic debt dynamics in emerging market economies. Our analysis suggests that the more competitive the banking sector and the more liquid and deeper the deposit market, the better would be the conditions in the public securities market. Our results also reveal that the lower the financial depth, the greater the scale of private sector credits that are crowded-out by public borrowing. To the extent that credit availability is associated with improved productivity and better output performance, the lack of financial depth in emerging market countries implies that extensive domestic borrowing in these countries may have consequences far beyond the concern with fiscal sustainability. As such, our results higlight the importance of developing domestic debt markets for financial and macroeconomic stability.

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Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of York in its series Discussion Papers with number 08/11.

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Date of creation: May 2008
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Handle: RePEc:yor:yorken:08/11

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Keywords: Financial sector; public debt; cost of borrowing.;

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  1. Eduardo Borensztein & Olivier Jeanne & Paolo Mauro & Jeromin Zettelmeyer & Marcos Chamon, 2005. "Sovereign Debt Structure for Crisis Prevention," IMF Occasional Papers 237, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Gaston Gelos & Jorge Roldos, 2002. "Consolidation and Market Structure in Emerging Market Banking Systems," IMF Working Papers 02/186, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Hanson, James A., 2007. "The growth in government domestic debt : changing burdens and risks," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4348, The World Bank.
  4. Edwards, Sebastian & Tabellini, Guido, 1991. "Explaining fiscal policies and inflation in developing countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1, Supple), pages S16-S48, March.
  5. Claessens, Stijn & Klingebiel, Daniela & Schmukler, Sergio, 2003. "Government bonds in domestic and foreign currency: the role of macroeconomic and institutional factors," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2986, The World Bank.
  6. Ismihan, Mustafa & Gulcin Ozkan, F., 2004. "Does central bank independence lower inflation?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 84(3), pages 305-309, September.
  7. Beetsma, R.M.W.J. & Bovenberg, A.L., 1995. "Does Monetary Unification Lead to Excessive Debt Accumulation?," DELTA Working Papers 95-23, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
  8. Dubravko Mihaljek & Michela Scatigna & Agustin Villar, 2002. "Recent trends in bond markets - The development of bond markets in emerging economies," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The development of bond markets in emerging economies, volume 11, pages 13-41 Bank for International Settlements.
  9. Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2003. "Globalization and global disinflation," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 77-112.
  10. Michael Kumhof & Evan Tanner, 2005. "Government Debt," IMF Working Papers 05/57, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Ozkan, F Gulcin, 2000. " Who Wants an Independent Central Bank? Monetary Policy-Making and Politics," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 102(4), pages 621-43, December.
  12. Manmohan S. Kumar & Pablo Emilio Guidotti, 1991. "Domestic Public Debt of Externally Indebted Countries," IMF Occasional Papers 80, International Monetary Fund.
  13. Ricardo J. Caballero & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2004. "Fiscal Policy and Financial Depth," NBER Working Papers 10532, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Michael Bleaney, 2005. "The Aftermath of a Currency Collapse: How Different are Emerging Markets?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(1), pages 79-89, 01.
  15. King, Robert G. & Levine, Ross, 1993. "Finance, entrepreneurship and growth: Theory and evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 513-542, December.
  16. David Hauner, 2006. "Fiscal Policy and Financial Development," IMF Working Papers 06/26, International Monetary Fund.
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Cited by:
  1. Ismihan, Mustafa & Ozkan, F. Gulcin, 2012. "Public debt and financial development: A theoretical exploration," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 115(3), pages 348-351.

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