Modelling the Dynamics of a Public Health Care System: Evidence from Time-Series Data
AbstractThe English National Health Service was established in 1948, and has therefore yielded some long time series data on health system performance. Waiting times for inpatient care have been a persistent cause of policy concern since the creation of the NHS. This paper develops a theoretical model of the dynamic interaction between key indicators of health system performance. It then investigates empirically the relationship between hospital activity, waiting times and population characteristics using aggregate time-series data for the NHS over the period 1952— 2005. Structural Vector Auto-Regression suggests that in the long run: a) higher activity is associated with lower waiting times (elasticity = -0.9%); b) a higher proportion of old population is associated with higher waiting times (elasticity = 1.6%). In the short run, higher lagged waiting time leads to higher activity (elasticity = 0.2%). We also find that shocks in waiting times are countered by higher activity, so the effect is only temporary, while shocks in activity have a permanent effect. We conclude that policies to reduce waiting times should focus on initiatives that increase hospital activity.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Department of Economics, University of York in its series Discussion Papers with number 07/23.
Date of creation: Jul 2007
Date of revision:
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Postal: Department of Economics and Related Studies, University of York, York, YO10 5DD, United Kingdom
Phone: (0)1904 323776
Fax: (0)1904 323759
Web page: http://www.york.ac.uk/economics/
More information through EDIRC
Waiting Times; Dynamics; Vector Auto-Regression;
Other versions of this item:
- Fabrizio Iacone & Steve Martin & Luigi Siciliani & Peter C. Smith, 2012. "Modelling the dynamics of a public health care system: evidence from time-series data," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(23), pages 2955-2968, August.
- Fabrizio Iacone & Steve Martin & Luigi Siciliani & Peter C Smith, 2007. "Modelling the Dynamics of a Public Health Care System: Evidence from Time-Series Data," Working Papers 029cherp, Centre for Health Economics, University of York.
- I11 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Analysis of Health Care Markets
- I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
- H42 - Public Economics - - Publicly Provided Goods - - - Publicly Provided Private Goods
- H52 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Education
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2007-07-27 (All new papers)
- NEP-EEC-2007-07-27 (European Economics)
- NEP-HEA-2007-07-27 (Health Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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IFS Working Papers
W04/35, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
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- repec:rus:hseeco:122140 is not listed on IDEAS
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