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Measuring overfitting and mispecification in nonlinear models

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  • Bilger M.;
  • Manning W.G;

Abstract

We start by proposing a new measure of overfitting expressed on the untransformed scale of the dependent variable, which is generally the scale of interest to the analyst.We then show that with nonlinear models shrinkage due to overfitting gets confounded by shrinkage—or expansion— arising from model misspecification. Out-of-sample predictive calibration can in fact be expressed as in-sample calibration times 1 minus this new measure of overfitting. We finally argue that re-calibration should be performed on the scale of interest and provide both a simulation study and a real-data illustration based on health care expenditure data.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by HEDG, c/o Department of Economics, University of York in its series Health, Econometrics and Data Group (HEDG) Working Papers with number 11/25.

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Date of creation: Aug 2011
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Handle: RePEc:yor:hectdg:11/25

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Postal: HEDG/HERC, Department of Economics and Related Studies, University of York, York, YO10 5DD, United Kingdom
Phone: (0)1904 323776
Fax: (0)1904 323759
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Web page: http://www.york.ac.uk/economics/postgrad/herc/hedg/
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Keywords: overfitting; shrinkage; misspecification; forecasting; health care expenditure;

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  1. Willard G. Manning & John Mullahy, 1999. "Estimating Log Models: To Transform or Not to Transform?," NBER Technical Working Papers 0246, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Manning, Willard G. & Basu, Anirban & Mullahy, John, 2005. "Generalized modeling approaches to risk adjustment of skewed outcomes data," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 465-488, May.
  3. Blough, David K. & Madden, Carolyn W. & Hornbrook, Mark C., 1999. "Modeling risk using generalized linear models," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 153-171, April.
  4. Anirban Basu & Bhakti V. Arondekar & Paul J. Rathouz, 2006. "Scale of interest versus scale of estimation: comparing alternative estimators for the incremental costs of a comorbidity," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(10), pages 1091-1107.
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